A8


The World


Vast trove could lift economy, ‘but there’s no way to get at it’


by Anne Flaherty and Deb Riechmann


kabul — It could take years and even a peace settlement for Afghanistan to reap profits from nearly $1 trillion in untapped mineral resources that U.S. geol- ogists say lie beneath its rugged terrain — some in areas current- ly controlled by Taliban insur- gents or warlords. Geologists have known for decades that Afghanistan has vast mineral wealth. A U.S. De- fense Department briefing Mon- day put a $908 billion price tag on the country’s reserves of iron,


S


KLMNO Afghan minerals also buried by conflict


copper, cobalt, gold and critical industrial metals such as lithium — a key ingredient in products ranging from medications to cellphone batteries.


If impoverished Afghanistan is seen as having a bright economic future, foreign countries will have another recourse to per- suade their war-fatigued popula- tions that securing Afghanistan is worth the fight and the loss of troops.


Still, without increased securi-


ty and a massive investment not only to mine but to transport the minerals, it could take years for Afghanistan to cash in the re- wards. The mineral trove could also bring unwanted conse- quences, including corruption and civil war. “Obama’s war just became more important and more com- plicated at the same time,” said


Bruce Riedel, a former CIA offi- cer who helped advise the ad- ministration last year when it was rethinking its Afghanistan strategy.


Riedel said that if the United


States can provide the security and logistics to build up mining capacity, Afghanistan’s interna- tional stock will suddenly be- come more valuable. But there are a host of complications — competing industries and coun- tries, corruption and war. Stephanie Sanok, who dealt with similar issues while work- ing at the U.S. Embassy in Iraq, likened the situation to a carni- val game that promises a prize if you can guide a tiny, hand-con- trolled crane to the perfect spot: It almost never works and re- quires a steady stream of money. “Everyone has known about this,” Sanok said of the minerals.


“But there’s no way to get at it.” Col. Dave Lapan, a Pentagon


spokesman, told reporters Mon- day that the $1 trillion figure didn’t surface until recently be- cause a military task force work- ing on the issue had been fo- cused on Iraq. The task force, led by Paul Brinkley, is helping Iraq and Afghanistan develop their economies. Until recently, dis- cussions with Kabul have fo- cused on encouraging the export of carpets, agriculture and other modest resources. It wasn’t until late last year


that the task force got around to looking at a 2007 study by the U.S. Geological Survey. That’s when the group estimated the minerals’ value, Lapan said. The New York Times first re-


ported the $1 trillion figure on Sunday night.


—Associated Press House, Senate panels to hold hearings on war afghanistan from A1


that as we increased our resourc- es in this effort, that it would be increasingly difficult as well,” said Denis R. McDonough, the chief of staff of the National Se- curity Council. “It’s absolutely understandable and absolutely justifiable for Congress to ask ad- ditional questions.” Much of the pressure for re- sults stems from the timeline that Obama set, and that the military agreed to, when he an- nounced his Afghanistan strat- egy and the deployment of about 30,000 additional troops in De- cember. U.S. troop strength will be about 100,000 by the end of August; a report on overall prog- ress in the war is due in Decem- ber. Troops are scheduled to be- gin withdrawing in July 2011. The military has clearly an- nounced each major operation, including a Marine offensive in Helmand province launched in February and a combined civil- military campaign in Kandahar that officials said last spring would be fully underway by this month. Strong Taliban resistance and lagging Afghan government participation have slowed prog- ress in Marja, a district at the


drumbeat of requests asking what does this mean, what does that mean regarding timelines and time horizons,” a defense of- ficial said. “I don’t see this as un- usual or abnormal, but there’s a lot of interest and concern.” In public statements last week,


CAROLYN KASTER/ASSOCIATED PRESS Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates has tried to lower expectations.


center of the Helmand cam- paign, creating the image that things have not been going as well as anticipated. That image was compounded last week when Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal, the head of U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan, said the military operations in Kan- dahar would not begin in force until September. Senior military and defense of-


ficials, none of whom was au- thorized to discuss relations with the White House, said congres- sional questions and a series of negative stories in the media have increased requests for ex- planations. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Mike Mullen “is cer- tainly aware that there is angst” in the White House, one military official said. “There has been a continuous


Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates sought to tamp down ex- pectations that results would be definitive by December. “We are going to have to show by the end of the year that our strategy is on the right track and making some headway,” Gates said. “I don’t think anyone has any illusions that we’ll be done or that there will be big victories or something like that. “But I think General McChrys- tal is pretty confident that by the end of the year, he will able to point to sufficient progress” to justify continuing the effort, he said.


Benjamin J. Rhodes, head of


strategic communications for the National Security Council, said that rough patches are inevitable and that “at different times, dif- ferent aspects of the strategy will be performing better than oth- ers.” Early this year, he said, Oba- ma was concerned about recruit- ment and training issues with


the Afghan security forces and “he leaned into that, just as he leaned into alignment with the Karzai government” before Kar- zai visited Washington last month.


But Obama, he said, is getting all the information he needs. The president receives a weekly in- teragency report and a monthly briefing from the field, including video conferences with McChrys- tal, U.S. Ambassador Karl W. Ei- kenberry and their counterparts in neighboring Pakistan. Obama, Rhodes said, is “confident of the approach we have in place and in GeneralMcChrystal’s implemen- tation of the strategy.”


Others are more doubtful. “It’s clear the Marja operation did not go as smoothly as expected,” said Frederick Jones, spokesman for Senate Foreign Relations Com- mittee Chairman John F. Kerry (D-Mass.). Kerry, he added, “is concerned


that the Taliban is reestablishing itself there.” The senator, who is planning oversight hearings on the war this summer, also has questions about Hanif Atmar, Afghani- stan’s former interior minister, and former intelligence chief Amrullah Saleh. Jones said both “were well-respected by the Americans and the British” be- fore Karzai fired them last week. Rep. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.), a


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member of the House Foreign Af- fairs Committee who has trav- eled to Afghanistan, said he was “decidedly dubious” of the Oba- ma administration’s war strategy from the start. “I’m trying to see how a year from now we’ll be in any better position than we are today. It’s difficult for me to see a way out here.” Obama’s war funding requests for this year and next are still awaiting approval, Flake said, and “it’s going to be a more diffi- cult sell than it was several months ago.” Even within the military, there are concerns, and “I sense the same division of opinion,” said Stephen Biddle of the Council on Foreign Relations. Although still in the minority, “some folks are very worried that the picture in December is going to look like it’s not worth the price,” said Biddle, a defense expert who was part of a planning group recruited by McChrystal last year to help for- mulate a new war strategy. The “darkness before the


dawn” is normal in counterinsur- gency operations, and the situa- tion on the ground in Afghani- stan is “not all that surprising,” Biddle said. “But I don’t know that it’s a huge cause for opti- mism, either.” deyoungk@washpost.com jaffeg@washpost.com


TUESDAY, JUNE 15, 2010 Mineral wealth in Afghanistan


A 2007 assessment of Afghanistan’s geological resources revealed an abundance of highly valuable mineral resources that could transform the country’s economy if tapped.


The United States identified 20 mineral resource areas recommended for further study that may contain enough deposits for rapid development.


Pegmatite Iron


Copper Gold


Kabul Kabul HERAT


Vast pegmatite fields containing lithium,


ZABUL ZABUL SOURCE:


U.S. Geological Survey


a material used in batteries, could rival those found in Bolivia, which currently has the largest concentrations of the mineral.


THE WASHINGTON POST


Iron deposits in this area could support a world-class mining operation.


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