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overview


The World Market and the Defense Primes


Airbus A320/Neo


Boeing 737NG/MAX Boeing 787


Boeing 777/X Airbus A350XWB


Lockheed Martin F-35 Airbus A330/Neo


Bombardier Global Embraer E-Jets Sikorsky H-60


Gulfstream 650 Su-30/T-50


Airbus A400M Airbus A380


Boeing 767/KC-46 Boeing AH-64


Gulfstream 500/600 Gulfstream 550


Lockheed Martin C-130J Dassault Falcon 7/8X


$0 $50 $100 2015-2024 2005-2014 $150 $200 $250 Richard Aboulafi a


Vice President, Analysis Teal Group Corp. Fairfax, VA


Top 20 Aviation Programs: Volume Matters Cumulative Deliveries Value in ‘15 $ Bns


A


US Growth Drives Aircraft Markets


s we roll through 2015, consider the mood back in 2008. As the developed world economy began a protracted recession, the aerospace world turned


to focus on exports to emerging markets. In particular, the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, China) were playing a leading role in driving demand growth. Today, the aircraft industry is living in a mirror image of those dark times. The US market is again playing a lead- ing role in in all major aviation segments. By contrast, many export markets are turning sluggish.


First, all the talk about US budget sequestration and an enduring defense downturn has given way to a return to growth. The Pentagon’s FY 2015 $91 billion procure- ment budget request, a low point over the past 10 years, has rebounded to $103 billion courtesy of Congressional Appropriators. The Republican win in the midterm elections,


coupled with the triumph of defense hawks over budget hawks, greatly increases the chance that sequestration will be avoided, and that future procurement budgets will stay above $100 billion. This year’s budget has already seen good news for key


aircraft programs. While Boeing’s Super Hornet/Growler se- ries has found just one export customer, Congress added 15 Growlers in FY 2015, extending the production line through 2017. The Navy has indicated it will look at more Growlers in FY 2016 too. Congress also added four F-35s to the FY 2015 budget, increasing funding to 38 planes. By contrast, the biggest non-US program, Eurofi ghter, is scheduled to die around 2018. Rafale continues to search for a fi rm export customer, after 25 years of trying, and with domestic French orders stuck at 11 per year. Only Saab’s Gripen is in a secure position. The US business aircraft market is also strengthening,


19 — Aerospace & Defense Manufacturing 2015


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