natural and human systems, and create new risks for the region’s economies, natural resources and human well-being.


Future projections show losses of glaciers in alpine areas of up to 98 per cent depending on the highest GHG scenarios, with several mountain glaciers disappearing within a few decades (Radic et al. 2013; Xu et al. 2012); sea level rise of 0.32 ± 0.05 metres by 2050 continuing over the course of the century (EEA 2014a; Rignot et al. 2011) shrinking of the Greenland plateau and thermally-induced expansion of water, yielding a multi-millennial sea level change of 1-3 metres per degree Celsius of warming; and a 50 per cent reduction in snow cover by the end of the century. The development of snowpack later in the year or a shorter duration of snow cover will occur as the climate warms, leading to increased soil freezing, increased fine root and microbial mortality, loss of soil nitrogen, change to surface water pH and hydrological disruption.


Schuur (2011) hypothesized that the extreme warming scenario RCP8.5 (i.e. +2.5°C Arctic warming by 2040, and +7.5°C by 2100) will degrade 9-15 per cent of the top three metres of permafrost by 2040, increasing to 47-61 per cent degradation by 2100 and 67-79 per cent by 2300. The potential carbon release from this degradation is estimated to be about 30-63 Gt (expressed as CO2


-equivalent) over the


next three decades, reaching 234-380 Gt by 2100 and 549- 865 Gt over several centuries. These values are 1.7-5.2 times larger than reported in modelling studies employing similar warming scenarios (Schneider von Deimling et al. 2012.


2.2.3 Region-wide greenhouse gas emissions


Since 1990, there has been an absolute decoupling in the EU between GDP and GHG emissions. Whereas the former has increased by 45 per cent, the latter has decreased between 1990 and 2013 by 1 203 million tonnes (21.2 per cent) (EEA 2015d). The EEA’s analysis concludes that this was due to growing shares of renewables, less carbon intensive fuels such as natural gas in the energy mix, improvements in energy efficiency, significant reductions in the residential sector and the recession of 2008-2009. GHG emissions decreased in the majority of sectors, except for transport,


Across the region, territorial and consumption-based emissions (that is, the emissions embodied in a country’s final consumption regardless of where they are produced (EEA 2015; Davis and Caldeira 2010) have also broadly declined or stabilised in Central, Eastern, Western and Northern Europe and the Russian Federation since the 1990s. However in South Eastern Europe (including Turkey), the Caucasus and Central Asia, they have been growing significantly, with South Eastern Europe experiencing an increase of 175 per cent between 1990 and 2012 (Figure 2.2.3). The largest emitter is Western Europe followed by the Russian Federation, with 40 per cent and 27 per cent of the total pan-European emissions for 2013 respectively (Global Carbon Project 2011; Peters et al. 2011).


refrigeration and air conditioning. The largest aggregate level reductions occurred in industrial electricity and heat production. Reductions in emissions from nitrous oxide (N2 and methane (CH4


O) ) are also substantial, reflecting lower


levels of mining activities and lower numbers of agricultural livestock, as well as lower emissions from managed waste disposal on land and from agricultural soils.


Reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in the region can be


largely attributed to the growing shares in renewable energy Credit: Shutterstock/Eugene Suslo


53


Chapter 2: Environmental State and Trends


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