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36. At Bawdsey both the cliffs and the upper beach have historically been relatively stable, although there can be notable seasonal variations in beach form. However, during the autumn of 2012 and winter of 2012/2013 the cliffs experienced undercutting by storm wave action, leading to cliff retreat, and the gravel beach became eroded, leading to exposure and lowering of the London Clay shore platform.


37. The cliffs at Bawdsey Manor are relatively stable, but the foreshore is eroding.


38. Offshore from the mouth of the Deben, the sediment bypassing the mouth forms the banks and bars of The Knolls. These can be variable in both position and form, depending on the prevailing conditions.


39. 40.


To the south of the Deben, periodic ‘pulses’ of sediment can move onshore from The Knolls and then become transported along the shore, generally towards the south.


The effects of sea level rise on future erosion rates has been considered in the SMP (Royal Haskoning 2010).


41. Under a theoretical scenario where future evolution is unconstrained by coastal defences, the coastline at Bawdsey cliffs is likely to erode between 15 and 110m over the next one hundred years. At Bawdsey Ferry the range will be 60 to 100m over this time period, whilst at Felixstowe Ferry it will be 75 to 410m and at North Felixstowe it will be 40 to 120m.


42. When existing coastal defences are taken into consideration, it is only at the undefended Bawdsey cliffs where change in shoreline position is likely to be experienced because all other frontages are defended. There will, however, be changes in the elevation of the foreshore and nearshore zone seaward of the defence structures, where present. These are particularly difficult to predict south of the Deben because this location is so critically dependent on the sheltering effect and periodic supply of ‘pulses’ of sediment from The Knolls.


43. On the basis of theoretical calculations undertaken specifically for the offshore cable corridor landfall location for the proposed East Anglia ONE project (ABPmer 2013), a highly conservative upper bound of retreat of the Bawdsey cliffs over the 25 year operational lifetime of the proposed East Anglia THREE project is 100m (at an average rate of 4m per year). This retreat is associated with sea level rise arising from the 95th percentile value of the ‘high’ greenhouse gas emissions scenario projected by UKCP09 (Lowe et al. 2009).


Preliminary Environmental Information May 2014


East Anglia THREE Offshore Windfarm


Appendix 7.4 Page 8


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