FX TECHNICAL REPORT SELECTED ASIAN / FAR EASTERN FX RATES – FEATURED MARKET – EUR/NZD
EUR/NZD extended the decline from 2.5773 in February 2009 through 2005 & 1997 bottoms at 1.6342 & 1.6031 to reach new all-time lows at 1.4969 & 1.3885 in August 2012 & April 2015, interrupted by a bounce which left a lower top at 1.7271 in August 2013. Although the recovery from 1.3885 successfully took out the previous recovery high at 1.7271, reaching 1.8540 in August 2015, the subsequent failure to leave a lasting higher low at 1.5827 has warned of a return towards the area of 2012 / 2015 lows at 1.4969 & 1.3885. The 12, 60 & 120 month (1, 5 & 10 year) moving averages
are bearishly aligned and MACD shows signs of dipping back under the pivotal zero line. We look for a bounce to leave a sub 1.7271 / 1.7289 lower top, possibly as soon as the 1.58-1.65 area. Doing so will increase the chances of a breakdown to yet new all-time lows during 2017, with 1.27-1.28 and 1.10-1.12 the next major target areas for the long- term decline.
Steve Jarvis
Chief Analyst Tradermade
EUR/NZD Monthly Candlestick Chart
MAJOR TRENDS AND TARGETS FOR SELECTED ASIAN FX RATES As at 20-Dec-16 NZD/USD USD/SGD USD/MYR USD/THB AUD/CAD AUD/NZD EUR/AUD EUR/NZD
Current level .6890
1.4465 4.3800 36.050 .9685
1.0500 1.4345 1.5050
Major trend Down Up Up Up
Flat
Down Flat
Down 1.0022 / 0.9550 1.3885 / 1.28
Major targets .6238 / .5831
1.4732 / 1.5577 4.8700 / 5.0000 36.662 / 39.160
Source: Tradermade
Trend change level .7535
1.3452 4.0765 33.010
0.9153 / 1.0394 1.1333
1.3681 / 1.6232 1.7289
72 FX TRADER MAGAZINE January - March 2017
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