TECHNICAL REPOR FX T MAJOR US DOLLAR RATES - FEATURED MARKET – USD/JPY
USD/JPY extended the recovery from a 2 year Head & Shoulders base (completed at the end of 2012) to exceed the 2007 lower top, reaching a 13 year high at 125.82 in June 2015, before tracing out a reversal pattern and then retracing just over 50% of the 2011-2015 recovery phase. The low recorded in August 2016 was almost spot-on the 120 month (10 year) moving average, from where a strong rally has occurred. This is closing in on former resistance at the 1990-1998 downtrend line which had been
overcome en-route to the June 2015 peak at 125.82. At present, the outlook for 2017 is not resolved. To increase the likelihood of a move to retest and possibly break the 2007 / 2015 highs at 124.14 / 125.82, setting up the 2002 recovery peak at 135.14, we will need to see a dip leave a higher low at an ideal maximum of the 105.44-105.50 area. Failure to do so could indicate the likelihood of a return towards support-tuned-resistance
around 84.16-84.83 and possibly to even retest the 2011 / 2012 lows.
USD/JPY Monthly Candlestick Chart
Source: Tradermade
MAJOR TRENDS AND TARGETS FOR US DOLLAR MAJORS As at 20-Dec-16 EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD AUD/USD
Current level 1.0375 1.2330 118.00 1.0305 1.3395 .7235
Down
Major trend Down Down Flat Flat Up
Major targets
1.0074 / 0.9227 1.1691 / 1.1000
Trend change level 1.1701 1.5016
1.4101 / 1.4688 .6830 / .6251
103.52 / 123.66 0.9446 / 1.0629 1.2765 .7831
FX TRADER MAGAZINE January - March 2017 69
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