FX US DOLLAR WATCH EUR/USD
As stated the last two years of articles for FX Trader Magazine, our long- term forecast has continued to stress the top in the EUR/USD since 2009 [at 1.4740], as well as the forecast subsequent decline to 1.1555 for March 2014 in the ongoing seven-year Dollar Bull Market Forecast. Aſter the strong, premature decline to 1.0460 in March 2015 produced weak complex medium- term technical aspects, the continued
sideways consolidation and top building for an additional three months beyond our forecast through July 2016 has not impacted the bullish long-term view. We continue to forecast
the decline
still to .9890 through January 2017, as well as the forecast further decline to .9330 strong long-term support through March 2017 in the even stronger dollar outlook through mid-year 2017. We are forecasting a subsequent six months’ consolidation [ .9330 – 1.1020] through December 2017 as a long-term bottom
begins to build for the Euro into 2018. Only a monthly close in EUR/USD still above 1.1715 would dampen the bearish long-term technical aspects of the market, and result in a strong retest of 1.2230 in a higher, choppy outlook [1.0880 - 1.2230] over the subsequent six months.
GBP/USD
GBP/USD has remained bearish in our long-term outlook for the last two years. Te extremely strong and historic “Brexit Decline” in GBP/ USD has produced a premature decline to the 1.3655 ongoing long- term objective for October 2016. In the process of this premature decline, the further strong decline through 1.3655 to 1.1950 developed the strongest complex medium-term divergences in a year.
EUR/USD GBP/USD
We are forecasting a weak retest of 1.3180 weak medium-term resistance, down sharply from 1.3795, through February 2017, then retest 1.2205 through April 2017 in the forecast subsequent, broad, and volatile bottoming formation and consolidation into December 2017 [1.1950 – 1.3445]. Only a monthly close back below 1.1950 would reignite bearish medium-term momentum, avert the further rally to 1.3180, and result in a deeper decline to 1.1220 weak long-term support over the subsequent three months. NOTE: EURGBP decline to the .7070 long-term objective for January 2015 complete; decline again to .7810 through March 2017 in [.7580 - .8795] into September 2017.
28 FX TRADER MAGAZINE January - March 2017
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