US DOLLAR WATCH
FX
We are forecasting a continuation of this consolidation view [114.20 – 121.40] through September 2017. Only a monthly close back below 114.15 would neutralize the bullish medium-term momentum and result in a decline to retest 108.80 over the subsequent month
EUR/JPY USD/JPY USD/JPY
In last quarter’s FX Trader Magazine article, we were focused on waning bearish medium-term momentum from the decline through the 107.80 objective for May 2016 to 99.00, as well as an imminent corrective rally. The strong rally through the 111.45
corrective objective for January 2017 as well as the November monthly close above 114.20 increased bullish medium-term momentum and techs. We are forecasting a further rally to 121.40 through February 2017 in the broad, volatile, and bullish outlook through the first quarter of 2017 [114.20 – 121.40].
As stated in the last couple of articles, as significant a currency pair as the EUR/USD or USD/JPY, EUR/JPY will continue to dominate currency trading through the first quarter of 2017. The premature decline in October 2016 to the 111.10 medium-term objective for November produced very strong multiple medium-term divergences, we are forecasting a further rally to 126.30 through February in a waning bullish outlook [116.90 – 126.30] into May 2017. We are forecasting a retest of 118.80 into June 2017, still in this choppy medium-term consolidation [116.90 – 126.30] into September 2017. Only a monthly close back below 116.90 would neutralize the waning bullish momentum and yield a retest of 111.10 over the subsequent two months.
USD/CHF I
emphasize that the Swiss Franc remains
am compelled each quarter the bellwether,
EUR/JPY to proactive
currency. Te third quarter consolidation and cross rate rotation combine in this currency. Every time the USD/CHF appeared to break
FX TRADER MAGAZINE January - March 2017 29
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