TECHNICAL ANALYSIS SELECTED ASIAN / FAR EASTERN FX RATES – FEATURED MARKET – EUR/AUD
EUR/AUD double topped at 2.1099 / 2.1001 in October / December 2008, new all-time traded highs following the accelerated rise in October 2008 aſter breaking the key 1.9101 high from September 2001. Tis 2.1099 / 2.1001 double top was completed in April 2009 by the breakdown through the November 2008 higher low at 1.8509 and MACD crossed down through zero to confirm a downtrend. MACD has remained in bearish territory for most of the time since then, with a steady retreat having reached 1.2135 so far. A succession of new all-time traded lows has occurred over the past two years since losing the May 2000 floor at 1.5004, with attempts to develop a double bottom at 1.2928 & 1.2930 in December 2010 & July 2011 having failed to be completed, leaving a slightly lower top at 1.4263 in August 2011, just
under the March 2011 1.4331 lower top. Tere are signs of a possible corrective recovery phase off 1.2135, but the previous failed base at 1.2928-1.2930 may revert to resistance, especially as this former floor is close to the top of a potential 3 year+ bear channel. However, an overshoot to the low to mid 1.30s is permitted, but we need to see a lower top form below the November 2011 one at 1.3811 to maintain the multi-month bearish outlook for a possible further decline towards 1.1525-1.1597 (100% down from the 1.2928-30 to 1.4263-1.4331 year-long consolidation). Longer-term, an extension towards .9859-1.0550 (50% of all-time high / 100% lower from 1.5479-2.1099 is not ruled out).
Steve Jarvis
FX
MAJOR TRENDS AND TARGETS FOR SELECTED ASIAN FX RATES As at 14 March USD/IDR USD/SGD USD/MYR USD/THB AUD/CAD AUD/NZD EUR/AUD EUR/NZD
Current level 9160
1.2665 3.0525 30.775 1.0365 1.2900 1.2475 1.6090
Major trend Sideways Sideways Down Down Up
Sideways Down Down
Major target
Trend change level 8800 / 9390
2.9358 & 2.6548 29.671 & 29.325 1.1316 & 1.2000
1.1525 & 1.0550 1.5000 & 1.4308
1.2387 / 1.3199 3.1700 31.425 1.0114
1.2321 / 1.3276 1.3543 1.8131
FX TRADER MAGAZINE April - June 2012 93
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