FX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS CURRENCY OUTLOOK MAJOR US DOLLAR RATES - FEATURED MARKET – GBP/USD
GBP/USD extended losses from the November 2007 peak at 2.1158 (the highest level since the reversal from the November 1980 peak at 2.4546) to reach 1.3500 in January 2009. Tis set up a retracement of between 38.2% and 50% of the entire 2.1158-1.3500 decline, topping out at 1.7041 in August 2009, before undergoing a deep retreat to 1.4234 in May 2010. Attempts to resume the overall recovery phase commenced from there, but a slightly lower top was eventually leſt at 1.6745 in April 2011 and from there a choppy retreat was supported at 1.5241 in January 2012, failing to sustain a break of the October 2011 low at 1.5273. 1.5241 was just over the uptrend line
connecting the 2009 and 2010 lows at 1.3500 and 1.4234, but recovery attempts have so far stalled at the (green) 52 week (1 year) moving average and this will need to be cleared, along with the October 2011 and November 2010 highs at 1.6167 and 1.6297 to avert the risk of a breakdown through the 1.5241-1.5273 lows towards the 1.4783 and 1.4234 lows recorded in March and May 2010. MACD and Tradermade’s proprietary Trend-reversal-indicator (TTRI) retain slightly bearish primary signals at present and we will need to see the 1.6167 lower top regained to avert the risk of a further multi-month decline towards the aforementioned 1.4783 & 1.4234 lows recorded in 2010.
MAJOR TRENDS AND TARGETS FOR US DOLLAR MAJORS As at 14 March
EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF USD/CAD AUD/USD
Current level 1.3040 1.5670 83.70 .9290 .9890
1.0450
Major trend Down
Sideways Sideways Sideways Sideways Sideways
Major targets 1.2329 & 1.1881
Trend change level 1.4280
1.5241 / 1.6616 76.04 / 85.53 .8571 / 1.0066 .9728 / 1.0656 .9667 / 1.1079
90 FX TRADER MAGAZINE April - June 2012
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