FX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FX EMERGING MARKETS – FEATURED MARKET – USD/TRL
USD/TRL retraced just over 61.8% of the January 2008-March 2009 1.1485-1.8237 advance to reach 1.3874 in November 2010, before rallying. The May 2010 lower top at 1.6293 initially held firm, gains being reversed at 1.6205 in February 2011, but a higher low was successfully built at 1.5007 in April 2011, close to the 50% retracement of the 1.3874-1.6205 rise, before heading higher again. New all-time highs were recorded at 1.9095 and 1.9219 in October and December 2011, interrupted by a dip to 1.7418, ahead of a reversal which slightly exceeded 1.7418 to reach a low of 1.7342 in February. A bounce is now under way and although
the primary trend does remain up, we see the risk of a lower top being left below the 1.9095 / 1.9219 double top, possibly near resistance-turned-support around 1.8158-1.8300, ahead of a deeper retreat towards former key resistance at 1.6205-1.6293 and possibly overshooting this area to test the 1.1493- 1.3874 uptrend line (now at 1.5319, rising .0020 per week). Attempts to develop a lasting higher low for a renewed period of strength may then emerge, with 2.0626 our next major upside target on an eventual break-out over 1.9095-1.9219, this is the 100% projection of the 1.1485-1.8237 rise from 1.3874.
MAJOR TRENDS AND TARGETS FOR FX EMERGING MARKETS As at 14 March EUR/CZK EUR/HUF EUR/PLN EUR/RON USD/ILS USD/RUR USD/TRL USD/ZAR
Current level 24.615 292.10 4.1525 4.3670 3.7900 29.475 1.8000 7.6675
Major trend Sideways Sideways Sideways Up
Sideways Sideways Up Up
Major target
4.7137 & 5.0000
Trend change level 23.934 / 26.614 276.95 / 317.71 3.8939 / 4.3280 4.2725
2.0626 & 2.2600 9.2092 & 9.8370
3.5166 / 3.9184 28.545 / 31.946 1.5668 7.0732
92 FX TRADER MAGAZINE April - June 2012
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