TECHNICAL ANALYSIS MAJOR CROSS-RATES - FEATURED MARKET - EUR/NOK
EUR/NOK peaked at 10.151 in December 2008 and then steadily retraced the rise from the October 2007 extreme low of 7.6256, initially reaching 7.6786 in May 2010 ahead of a two- legged recovery to 8.2282 & 8.2551, topping out in October 2010.
Since then a bearish channel
has developed, with the breakdown through the 7.6786 & 7.6256 lows in September 2011 having initially reached 7.4892 before leaving a lower top at 7.9034 for a further decline. For most of the past three years MACD and Tradermade’s own Trend-reversal-indicator (TTRI) have remained largely camped inside bearish ground and this remains the case now, although the
start of a corrective bounce may not be far off given the close proximity of the channel base and TTRI having started to turn higher from oversold (-60) where lows have commonly been left before now. We are looking for a bounce to be capped near former lows at 7.6550-7.6786, ahead of a further multi-month decline towards the 7.0750-7.1021 region which marks the 100% downside projections from the 7.6786-8.2551 and 7.4892-7.9034 recovery phases. Longer- term, the 6.7270-6.9230 area appears possible. This lower target marks the 61.8% Fibonacci projection of the 10.151-7.6786 decline from 8.2551 and 38.2% decline from the 10.151 peak.
FX
MAJOR TRENDS AND TARGETS FOR MAJOR CROSS-RATES As at 14 March EUR/GBP GBP/JPY EUR/JPY EUR/CHF EUR/NOK EUR/SEK
Current level .8320
131.25 109.15 1.2110 7.5760 8.9010
Major trend Down Down Down Down Down Down
Major targets .8069 & .7695 105.30 & 100 88.97 & 81.26
1.1015 & 1.0071 7.1021 & 6.9230 8.4430 & 8.2960
Trend change level .8830
135.11 111.67 1.2467 7.8647 9.1147
FX TRADER MAGAZINE April - June 2012 91
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