TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Te Kijun-Sen turned flat what is the sign of disequilibrium on the market and it attracted the price back to itself. Aſter touching the Kijun-Sen in February, the bearish movements continued.
At the beginning of 2012, the price on the Daily EURUSD chart was below all Ichimoku components. In January it crossed up the Tenkan and Kijun-Sen lines, then aſter a weak bullish Tenkan- Sen/Kijun-Sen cross, it continued it’s way up. In February the price was moving in the body of the Kumo till it finally broke out on the upside at the end of the month. However as it wasn’t a valid Kumo breakout (because the Chikou- Span didn’t confirm the move), in March the price started to move down again aſter a weak bearish Tenkan-Sen/Kijun-Sen cross.
EURUSD Prospect
Te Daily EURUSD chart is neutral, as the price is above the Kumo, but below the Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen lines. Te Chikou Span is in the body of the Kumo and the future Kumo is bullish.
Te Weekly EURUSD chart is mostly bearish, as the price is below the Kumo cloud and the Kijun-Sen line and the future Kumo is also bearish here. However the Chikou Span is still in the body of the Kumo so the bearish movements will need further confirmation.
Te Monthly EURUSD is similar to the Weekly chart, mostly bearish, but as the Chikou Span is still in the Kumo and the Tenkan-Sen is above the Kijun-Sen, it is better to wait till the picture gets clearer.
GBPUSD Retrospect
Te price was in the same ranging period on the GBPUSD Monthly chart as it was 3 months before. It was moving below the Kumo, but it trapped between the Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen lines.
On the Weekly GBPUSD chart the Chikou Span bounced up from the bottom of the Kumo in January and it pushed the price up a bit till it reached the Senkou Span B level in February. However it stayed below the Kumo.
On the Daily chart the new year started with the last wave of the previous year’s down movements. But at the end of January a weak bullish Tenkan-Sen/ Kijun-Sen cross happened and the price started to move up till it reached the top of the Kumo at the end of January. As the movement wasn’t stopped my the Senkou Span B level, the price could break out from the Kumo with the confirmation of the Chikou Span, right at the beginning of February. Aſter that the price started to range in March and stayed above the Kumo.
GBPUSD Prospect Figure 2: EURUSD Weekly
Te Daily GBPUSD seems to be bullish, as both the price and the Chikou Span are above the cloud and the future Kumo is bullish too, however the Tenkan-Sen is currently below Kijun-Sen.
Figure 3: EURUSD Daily
Te Weekly chart is bearish as the price is below the Kumo and the Kumo future is bearish too, but as the Chikou Span is moving in the body of the Kumo, it shows that the price is a bit undecided at the moment.
FX TRADER MAGAZINE April - June 2012 77
FX
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