TIM DENISON
trends:
MARKET ANALYSIS: A FIGHT FOR FOOTFALL by Tim Denison, director of Synovate
Tim Denison, director of Synovate explains why de- partment stores need to em- brace adversity.
N
o-one expects 2011 to be a stroll through the park: more likely a fight
through the undergrowth. There’s a sense of acceptance in the air that, for the majority, daily lives will become harder in some undefined way; the money in our pockets won’t stretch as far and that there’ll be more anxiety about our state of wellbeing and security. The psychological tourniquet is being tightened, constricting our propensity to go out to shop and to spend. In practical terms Synovate
expects to see the quasi-antithe- sis of the so-called ‘double jeop- ardy’ effect: shoppers making fewer trips and visiting fewer
shops per trip. We forecast store footfall will continue to decline in 2011 at 3 per cent p.a., (in 2010 the year-on-year change was -3.6 per cent) which, if founded, would mean that high street traffic will have declined by 10 per cent over the last five years.
The retail outlook for 2011 will, however, not be uniform across the UK. I expect regional disparities to become more ex- treme in the wake of public sector job losses, changes to the state benefit system and the likes of city bonuses. I ex- pect differentials to develop further across the age spec- trum, not just in spending powers, but also in shopping habits, channels and interests. Though the harsh times ahead will undoubtedly cause hardship for retailers, they could also mark the re-invigo-
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