records for the baseline (1960 to 1990 average), and modelled predictions for the 2050s and the 2080s. For these predictions, the climate change model HadCM3, developed by the United Kingdom Meteorological Office, was used. Estimations are for two scenarios, B2 and A2 (medium and high level of greenhouse gas emissions respectively). The comparison suggests that by 2050, parts of northeast Spain will have irrigation demands similar to those currently experienced in the southeast, whilst southeast Spain will be hotter and drier than anywhere in Spain at present. To check the changes in PSMD at one specific point, a long term climate dataset from Malaga has been used. Malaga is located in the south, on the Mediterranean littoral and it is the province with the biggest concentration of courses in Spain. In Figure 2 the recorded values since 1983 are compared with the predicted average values for the 2050s and 2080s under the two scenario, all ranked by size. For the 2050s, the average PSMD values will be very similar to the driest years in the last twenty. Those were in 1995
and 2005, when the country suffered major drought. For the 2080s the predictions are even worse, with PSMD values much higher than the extreme values registered in the past. Converting this increase of PSMD to irrigation need, the predictions would imply an increase in turf water requirements of more than 20% by the 2050s and approximately 60% by the 2080s. Furthermore, these increases will occur at a time when we will have additional problems due to the reduction in available summer water resources, because of the new distribution of rainfall. Clearly there are likely to be major water resource problems ahead for golf in Spain.
ADAPTATION OPTIONS
To mitigate climate change impacts, adaptation options will be needed. To cope with the water scarcity golf courses will have two options: obtain more water for irrigation and improve the efficiency in the use of the water. In Spain, water resources are already under huge pressure. Many other
sectors are demanding more water for their own needs, and there is growing pressure to actually reduce water abstraction to protect the environment. To obtain more resources for golf will not be easy. Under Spanish water law, transfers from agriculture to golf are not allowed. Given the high income and employment generation of golf courses, it could be argued that government should change the water law to allow that sort of transfer. This would enable the development of a water market, designed to allocate the water to the most profitable sectors. However, there are strong vested interests that might oppose that change. Otherwise non-conventional water
sources such as recycled waste water and desalinization seem to be the only alternatives for golf. As most of the courses are located on the coast, desalinisation would seem to be a good option to increase water availability, particularly if new technologies currently being investigated result in less expensive production. Even so, the high energy consumption required conflicts with efforts to limit climate change.
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