With most climate change experts predicting that the south of England will have a Mediterranean climate by 2050, what are the issues facing those regions now?
Coupled with a huge golf course building programme, will there be enough water to keep Spanish courses alive?
By Dr Juan Rodríguez-Díaz Climate Research Scientist University of Cordoba
AGUAIssues
GOLF in Spain has been growing throughout the 20th century, but there was a particularly rapid increase during the 1990s. Since 1997 the number of golf courses in the country has increased by 83%, to around 300. During the same period the number of golfers has grown even more rapidly; up 128 % to almost 300,000 registered players. This increasing popularity means that there will be more and more demand for new courses.
Because of the importance of golf for the tourism sector, many of the courses are concentrated along the country’s Mediterranean coast, with the Costa Del Sol being the most popular. But the mildness of the Mediterranean climate means that a huge amount of water is required to maintain high quality turf. The two climate drivers of irrigation, rainfall and evapotranspiration, are very different from most other European countries. In most regions of Spain, rainfall is concentrated in winter, while the summers are extremely dry and hot. Evapotranspiration rates are some of the highest in Europe, with average values in some of the driest areas of more than 7mm/day in July
and August. For that reason the entire golf course is irrigated, unlike here in the United Kingdom where, generally, only the greens and tees are irrigated. On a typical golf course in Spain the total irrigated surface area is around 34 hectares, whilst in the UK it is around 2 hectares.
Due to the large surface area, and the
extreme climate conditions, the average water consumption per year on a typical 18 hole golf course is around 350,000 cubic metres, with an average applied depth close to 100mm. Consumption can be even higher in some areas of Southeast Spain. Based on average values, the total consumption in the country has been estimated at already more than 85 million cubic metres every year.
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
In future years, the number of golf courses is expected to rise spectacularly. Some predictions suggest that the number will double in just five years, with a bigger increment in the Southeast, where the water deficits between available resources and
demand are already dramatic. That increase would result in a significant growth in water consumption. But another threat that could also
make the water demand grow is climate change. Under the present predictions, evapotranspiration will rise in all regions of the country when the water demand is highest. Rainfall will be affected too. Whilst only a slight reduction in the total amount is forecast, importantly, its distribution over the year will be concentrated into the winter months while summers will become even drier and hotter. Also, the probability of extreme events such as droughts or heavy rain, will increase. To illustrate the impacts of climate change on water demand, we can use an agroclimatic indicator called PSMD (Potential Soil Moisture Deficit). Basically, PSMD is a cumulative balance of rainfall and evapotranspiration. There is a strong correlation between the yearly peaks in PSMD and water consumption; thus changes in peak PSMD can be used as an indicator of the growth in water demand. In Figure 1 the average values across Spain are compared, using
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