TitleBrighter light at the end of tunnel
Walt Custer and Jon Custer-Topai
Brighter light at end of
tunnel
Based upon data available in mid-April, Looking forward, a recent Wall Street industry declined 9.4% from January
global industrial production growth still Journal survey of noted economists pre- to February, the first negative growth in
looked quite bleak (Chart 1) and electronic dicted that domestic GDP growth would
30 years. —MIIT
equipment shipments continued to decline return in 3Q’09 (Chart 7) and Henderson
• Germany’s exports fell 20.7% y/y in
(except for Taiwan/China) at an accelerat- Ventures’ most recent global electronic
January, the sharpest drop in 16 years.
ing rate (Chart 2). growth forecast (Chart 8) sees an electronic
—German statistics office
However multiple ‘brighter spots’ are industry expansion returning in 2010.
now visible on the horizon. U.S. electronic The world electronic equipment ‘food
end markets
equipment orders and shipments improved chain’ appears to have reached the bottom
Automotive:
(slightly) in February (Chart 3) and Taiwan of its current 3/12 rate-of-change business
• Auto shipments fell from 69.1 million
units in 2007 to 65.6 million in 2008
OEMs (many with manufacturing in cycle (Chart 9). Keep in mind that passing
and are expected to be 63.2 million in
China) saw sales turn in February and then this lower turning point in the 3/12 curve
2009.
improve noticeably in March (Chart 4). A indicates that we are still declining, but just
• China is expected to become top auto
modest upturn in Taiwan wafer foundries at a lesser rate. Actual growth will not occur
producer in 2009 with 8.7 million
(Chart 5) foretells a turnaround in global until the 3/12 reaches 1.0.
units. Japan will be second with 7.6
semiconductor shipments and Taiwan 2009 still looks to be VERY difficult million. In 2008, China manufactured
printed circuit, and CCL (laminate) pro- but we have more reasons for optimism—at 9.3 million cars while the US built 8.7
ducers (again often producing in China) least for next year and beyond. million. —iSuppli
reported a March sales rebound (Chart 6).
• Automotive display market will grow
Not all of these positive signs can be economic activity
from 175 million displays ($1.77 bil-
taken as certain proof of ‘recovery.’ but
• Global IT spending will decline 3.7%
lion) in 2009 to 231 million units ($2.4
clearly the various stimulus programs, an
to $3.23 trillion in 2009. —Gartner
billion) in 2015. —DisplaySearch
aggressive Chinese 3G wireless upgrade
• U.S. stimulus package will generate
• Automotive semiconductor market
reached just over $20 billion in 2008
and some inventory ‘catching up’ seem to
$100 billion in added tech spending.
and is expected to contract to $15 bil-
have combined to rekindle growth.
—IDC
• China’s electronics’ manufacturing
lion in 2009. —Electronics.ca Publica-
20090412 20090411
Industrial Production - World
% Change vs. One Year Earlier
Global Electronic Equipment Shipment Growth
Taiwan/China
3/12 rate of growth in local currency
Europe
1.6
Japan
1.5
USA
0
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CALENDAR YEAR
Economist 4/2009
http://www.economist.com Output, prices and jobs
Chart 1. Chart 2.
20 – Global SMT & Packaging – May 2009
www.globalsmt.net
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