2009: V
Title
ery little smooth sailing until at least summer
Walt Custer and Jon Custer-Topai
2009: Very little smooth
sailing until at least summer
The world ‘recession’ continues to worsen. a three-month basis in October (Chart 6). October. 2009 is predicted to see further
Recent regional GDP growth forecasts A 2.1% chip shipment decline is predicted deterioration (Chart 12)—with negative end
(Chart 1) show 2009 as the ‘bottom’ year by the WSTS organization in 2009 (Chart market growth for all regions (except for
with only 1.3% economic growth. The 7) while Henderson Ventures sees a less China’s scant 2.3% increase).
USA, Europe and Japan are all predicted optimistic 8.4% drop (Chart 2). Whatever None of this is pretty, but it’s ‘what the
to be in negative territory. the exact growth number, 2009 is expected numbers’ say. Expect a very difficult busi-
The global electronic “food chain” had to be a difficult year. ness climate in 2009—especially in the first
a difficult year in 2008 (Chart 2) and 2009 Capital equipment vendors will feel the six to nine months.
looks to be worse (Chart 3)—especially for pain much more. SEMI’s December 2008
capital equipment vendors. reforecast calls for a 27.7% drop in semi- recent forecasts & market
Electronic equipment production conductor CAPEX in 2008 followed by a estimates
‘3/12’ growth was already negative by further 21.4% decline in 2009 (Chart 8). • Alternative energy sector to grow from
autumn 2008 in the USA and Japan with Printed wiring board sales are also US $38 billion in 2008 to US $115
Europe close behind (Chart 4). Taiwan/ shrinking with all regions (Americas, billion in 2013.—Databeans
China growth slipped to mid single digits Europe, Japan and SE Asia) in negative • Worldwide IT spending to increase
(its low since late 2001) with no imminent territory by autumn 2008. Taiwan/China 2.6% Y/Y. Japan, Western Europe and
turnaround in sight. Composite monthly had a disastrous November for both PCBs U.S. are expected to expand by only
revenues of 101 Taiwan listed OEMs (many and laminate (Chart 9). Custer Consult- 1%—IDC.
with manufacturing in China) shows that ing Group’s world PCB shipment model • Global HDD shipments to increase
2008’s pre-holiday ‘busy season’ peaked in peaked in September 2008 with likely 16.9% y/y to 573.92 million units in
October with likely declining sales until at declining sales through at least spring 2009 2008.—Yano Research Institute
least March 2009 (Chart 5). (Chart 10). • Worldwide mobile phone sales
The most recent (rather anemic) Based upon all of the above informa- increased 6% y/y to more than 309
semiconductor business cycle has now tion the global electronics food chain million units in 3Q’08.—Gartner
ended—skidding to minus 2.4% growth on (Chart 11) was at or below “zero growth” in • PC shipments to increase only 4.3% in
20081207
20081208
GDP Growth
Global "Electronic Foodchain" Growth
Constant $ Growth Rates Converted @ Constant Exchange Rates 2008 vs 2007
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
World 4.1 3.9 2.6 1.3 3.3 Combined GDP
HV 3
USA 2.8 2.0 1.4 -0.4 2.6
Electronic Equipment
HV 1
EU 3.2 2.9 1.1 -0.3 1.5
Rigid & Flex PCBs
-2 HV
Japan 2.4 2.0 0.5 -0.2 1.8
Semiconductors
-2 HV
Four Tigers 5.0 5.3 3.8 2.7 4.8
China 11.4 11.6 9.6 7.4 8.3
Semi Capital Equipment
-28 SEMI
-30 -20 -10 0
Henderson Ventures 12/2008
www.hendersonventures.com % Change
Chart 1. Chart 2.
28 – Global SMT & Packaging – January 2009
www.globalsmt.net
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