p10-11 Market Monitor May1 29/4/09 22:58 Page 10
Market Monitor
TTG’s regular, real market intelligence
We’ve analysed the latest market data to offer an unrivalled
snapshot of how the travel market is faring. By Lee Hayhurst
GfK Ascent MI
The summer market to March:
March bookings
■ Sales of 14-night holidays are 400,000 down –
a drop in revenue of £180 million
■ Family holiday revenues declined £116 million
■ Adult booking revenues declined £135 million
■ All-inclusive sales account for £3 in every £10 spent,
herald lates fillip
adding £146 million of revenue to the market
Destination charts
The big movers
£120m
£115m
HOLIDAY bookings in March have given some Pent-up demand
grounds for guarded optimism. The figures were Price comparison website Cheapflights warned
flat year-on-year, suggesting the expected strong that aggressive capacity cuts for this summer
£80m
late-booking market is coming in. could force late bookers into the hands of
According to GfK Ascent MI’s official market overseas operators.
£40m
£29m
data, March saw an end to a double-digit decline With strong late bookings expected, firms
£12m
in total bookings experienced in previous months. including Tui Travel and Lowcostbeds have in-
0
There was, in particular, an increase in off-high sisted they are geared up to meet that demand
Turkey Egypt Mexico
street direct bookings, up 7%, while the high with late campaigns. Bookings to the end of March 2009
street was down 6%, reversing a trend seen to But Francesca Ecsery, Cheapflights’ UK general
date this year. manager, warned UK suppliers might be unable to Ones to watch
March 2009 bookings represented 22% of all benefit having taken capacity out of the market.
£30m
direct channel (online/call centre) bookings to “I worry there will be late demand from the UK
date, compared with 18% in March 2008. but operators will not be able to match it,” she said.
Ascent said “it would appear at this early stage “People are cautious as everybody knows
£20m
that summer 2009 will see a swing towards later there’s a recession, but there is pent-up demand. £30m £28m
bookings online”. Unless UK firms cater for it, someone else will.”
£10m
The rise in direct channel business did not come
at the great expense of revenues, the data found, Job insecurity
0
with average selling prices just £3 down on last year. Ecsery said customers previously reluctant to
Barbados Dominican Republic
book because of job security would be feeling Barbados is growing year on year by £30 million
Stand by your prices more confident if still in work. Dominican Republic is growing year on year by £28 million
Sarah Smalley, GfK Ascent managing director, However, Tim Williamson, Tui Travel customer Growth in revenues for winter 2008
said: “Operators who have not sacrificed their director, said research it had done had found no
prices and stood firm have been vindicated.” correlation between the level of employment and Overall bookings
Although March saw a swing back to non-high overseas travel.
■ WINTER 2008 –
street sales in terms of passenger numbers, He said the travel giant had funds to spend on The value of the market was down just 1%
overall revenues for summer 2009 through marketing in the lates, including on television
■ WINTER 2009 – Bookings £133 million down to date on
direct channels were £180 million down, com- advertising, which is plummeting in price.
same time last year
pared with a £70 million drop on the high street. “The message is unlikely to be price. There
“High street agents have added value to cus- probably is a need to remind consumers there’s
■ Gfk Ascent MI is the official stats body for the UK
tomers and, in some cases, increased average sell- still availability for 2009 and create urgency.”
travel industry which collates live booking data from the
ing prices from last year, while average selling price Paul Evans, Lowcostbeds chief executive, big two, lastminute.com and 55% of Abta agents
for direct bookings has decreased,” Smalley said. predicted traditional favourites such as Spain will
■ OAG is the aviation data business which supplies
Overall summer 2009 bookings are down 10%, do well in the lates, leading the fightback against
details of all scheduled flights worldwide
■ GTMC is the representative body for the business travel
equating to £250 million of revenue, which is rivals such as Turkey.
industry, representing over 80% of business travel spend
thought to be largely due to capacity cuts. “There has been a lot of bullshit fed by people in the UK
If capacity cuts are not as deep as expected, who want to sell seats expensively,” he said.
■ Cruise Market Watch is compiled by former Miami
the picture would improve, said Ascent, which “For Majorca, Ibiza and Costa Brava there are still
Herald business development manager Ryan Wahlstrom
who regularly surveys agents in the US and worldwide
will monitor late-booking levels. £65 seats. That’s where the late capacity will be.”
10 01.05.2009
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