STATISTICIAN’S VIEW
Poverty, War, and Statistics—
Georgia This Time
Safaa Amer and Fritz Scheuren
A
re statisticians
ever ready to deal
with questions of
war? Perhaps partly, but
in the case of the Russian
invasion of Georgia, our
Tbilisi
answer is “obviously
not.” At least not yet.
This is true, even for
those of us who work/live
in Georgia.
No matter how a war starts or is triggered,
it always takes civilians by surprise. The war
in Georgia was no different, even though we
had been there just weeks earlier.
War’s impact has many dimensions. The
first and foremost is the human factor. This
human factor starts a chain reaction that
affects not only individual lives, but goes
beyond that to change economic trends and
political attitudes.
Numbers are powerful in these situa-
tions. Our work on estimating the dead in assess these consequences and find ways of respondents when engaged in any data
Iraq due to the war showed the most strik- to handle them. collection and analysis.
ing fact is in the number of war-related We started our work in Georgia with Next, we need to employ the most
casualties, as distinct from combat deaths. an impact evaluation of poverty reduction advanced methods our discipline has, seek-
Early media estimates of deaths occur- through economic growth, thinking that ing input, with all humility, from outside
ring during the war in Georgia were was hard enough in a peacetime situation. experts—especially those familiar with
around 4,000. At first, we were shocked by Our client is the Millennium Challenge assessing the impact of other wars or natu-
this number, but then we wondered who Corporation, an arm of the U.S. State ral disasters (such as Katrina).
came up with this number and how? How Department. Problems with frames, survey Last, but not least, our goal is always
much is simply an appeal for help? How instrument design, and data collection held to “keep our eyes on the prize,” as the
much is factual? Now that some time has more than a handful of challenges for us. But, Reverend Martin Luther King Jr. reminded
passed, we have a better estimate. now, the war with Russia has added a different us 45 years ago on August 28, 1963. His
According to our colleague Mamuka dimension to program impact evaluation and answer then was “freedom.” Ours should be
Shatirishvili from Georgia, the actual num- widened our scope beyond the achievement that, too—the freedom to live a decent life
ber of deaths may be closer to 400. Still, of Millennium Development Goals. Just as in peace. Statistics must ever be to extend
that does not lessen the tragedy. the efforts for poverty reduction were starting solidarity to our fellow humans who are
Estimating the number of dead and to bloom in Georgia, everyone was surprised suffering during this war and to offer them
injured is the first consideration of dam- by the dramatic turn of events. Bottom line, all respect and consideration. n
age by war. Buildings and infrastructure what is our role as statisticians in this situa-
can be repaired, but the dead do not tion? Three partial answers come to mind, Editor’s note: Safaa Amer and Fritz Scheuren
return to life. Their permanent loss is not and we invite our colleagues to offer more. are employed by NORC and do poverty pro-
only heart-breaking on a human level, To start with, we need to approach the gram impact evaluation in Georgia for the
but has strong economic and political problem from a human perspective, with Millennium Challenge Corporation and its
effects, too. Statistics can be one way to sensitivity, and always maintain the rights local counterpart, MCG.
OCTOBER 2008 AMSTAT NEWS 23
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