38
AFRICA
ISSUE 05 2014
with a genuine need for LTE, resulting in an increase of approximately double, to 700,000 subscribers. This will be predominantly driven by an efficient 4G regulatory environment, increased spending on 4G infrastructure by telecom operators, and escalating data consumption demands of consumers.
IDC: It is expected that by 2015 all African telecoms regulatory bodies will release LTE spectrum for use by mobile network operators and ISPs. Mobile network operators will play a major role in driving the growth of LTE in Africa. It is also expected that there will be a significant increase in affordable LTE mobile devices as the LTE mobile device ecosystem grows. This will also be a key driver for mobile subscribers to take up LTE subscriptions. Another key factor that is expected to drive growth is the deployment of VoLTE. LTE mobile operators that have 3G consumers are expected to encourage migration of their 3G customers to the LTE platform. With these four factors we expect a good proportion of mobile subscribers to be LTE users in five years’ time.
Abegunde Oluwole, research analyst at IDC
F&S: We see the launch of 4G LTE across Africa has been driven primarily by the need for increased network capabilities in the enterprise segment. Telecoms operators have recognised this need as an opportunity to boost their profits and justify the price premiums by offering an enhanced Internet-usage experience.
LTE has been launched by several operators in a number of African markets. Has this been in response to a genuine need on the part of subscribers, or is it motivated purely by a desire for higher profits from the operators? BMI: Rather than being demand or profit driven, BMI believes mobile operators are seeking first-mover advantages with early investment in LTE. Safaricom and Vodacom were early to market with 3G services in Kenya and Tanzania, respectively, and they now hold strong positions in the mobile data market. Meanwhile, it is not clear that operators are always making bigger profits on LTE: in Namibia the cost of LTE has already fallen sharply, while in Zambia, MTN offers LTE for the same price as 3G.
In its 3G/4G forecasts graph for Sub-Saharan Africa BMI does not separate 3G and 4G forecasts. However, BMI expects LTE to account for an increasing proportion of the 3G/4G market over its forecast period, reaching around 15 per cent by 2018
Source BMI
20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000
0
3G/4G subscribers, ‘000 3G penetration, % of population
2012 51,607 6.36
2013 69,578 8.36
2014f 87,144 10.2
2015f 105,612 12.04
2016f 124,836 13.87
2017f 143,862 15.59
2018f 164,838 17.42
10 12 14 16 18 20
0 2 4 6 8
IDC: Telecom operators are indisputably looking for new growth areas. With very low Internet penetration on the African continent and a very limited fixed broadband infrastructure, carriers have an opportunity to fill the gap in consumer and business demand. Introduction of LTE services also improves brand awareness of innovative technology leaders, supports growth in retention rates and new customer acquisition. From a long-term perspective, LTE is also seen as a way to address capacity concerns related to higher mobile data usage. Consumers are also demanding better QoS on data subscriptions; they want to do more with their mobile devices, e.g. play games in real time online, download large files on their mobiles, make video calls. Just last year, Airtel Africa launched the Airtel Games Club in several countries across the continent. Airtel’s customers can download premium mobile games such as FIFA 14, Need for Speed, Bejeweled, and many more. A vital key to the success of the Airtel Games Club is the ability to implement excellent customer experience when customers are trying to access the games. An LTE network can deliver speed and capacity that will guarantee that excellent customer experience.
How many subscribers are there currently to LTE networks across Africa and what is their main demographic? How do you see numbers increasing in the coming years?
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28 |
Page 29 |
Page 30 |
Page 31 |
Page 32 |
Page 33 |
Page 34 |
Page 35 |
Page 36 |
Page 37 |
Page 38 |
Page 39 |
Page 40 |
Page 41 |
Page 42 |
Page 43 |
Page 44 |
Page 45 |
Page 46 |
Page 47 |
Page 48 |
Page 49 |
Page 50 |
Page 51 |
Page 52