Feature UPS & Standby Power


WHAT WILL LIGHT THE WAY AFTER THE BLACKOUTS?


AMPS, the trade association that represents the manufacturers and suppliers of diesel generators, ask how likely are extended blackouts, and what can the general public do in preparation?


ome people may have seen the recent Channel 4 feature length docu-drama, Blackout, that envi- sioned a terrifying Britain with- out mains power - the grid having been shutdown by a cyber attack. This bleak scenario would have been even bleaker without emergency diesel generators supplying power to key infrastructure such as the govern- ment, hospitals and media services. One important point to note is that


S


the programme scenario is certainly grounded in reality. In the lead up to the London Olympic games there was the suggestion, ‘of a credible attack on the electricity infrastructure supporting the Games,’ according to Olympic cyber security head, Oliver Hoare. And, with the National Grid largely con- trolled by computers, it’s certainly fea- sible a cyber attack could disrupt power generation. Wisely then, this is an area where investment in defence is being focused. However, blackouts can have a number of causes and the grid arguably faces even greater challenges that have many experts predicting problems over the coming years.


Lessons from the past Recent precedents can certainly be


found in other countries: ●


US and Canada, 2003: Two-day blackout affecting 55 million people across north eastern and mid-western areas of the US as well as the Canadian province of Ontario. The


India, 2012: Another two-day blackout that affected 620 million people - half of India and nine per- cent of the world’s population. This time it was caused by a failure to bal-


cause was a software bug. ●


London, 2003: Many will remem- ber the blackout that affected rush


ance supply and demand. ●


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“People don’t consider where their power comes from, and consider even less that they could mitigate the threat of a blackout with a relatively small gen- erator,” said Robert Beebee, chairman of AMPS. “The potentially life saving and business saving role of a generator is something the


public are largely


unaware of. I think the number of diesel generating sets would explode if people understood the potential threat of black- outs due from 2015 onwards.” The show prompted some worried reactions, with viewers expressing


hour in London in 2003. It was caused by a technical failure that led to a domino effect.


So, are further blackouts likely in the


UK? With large coal, oil and nuclear stations closed or planned for decom- missioning, the National Grid will pos- sess only two percent energy margin by 2015/16, according to one of their own scenarios. And the government’s Statutory Security of Supply Report states that there are real likelihoods of disconnections, with the risks rising from 1 in 3,300 a year this winter to 1 in 12 a year in 2015/16.


Below: the potential blackouts of the future could lead to a starring role for diesel generators


their concerns via Twitter. However, are these reactions justified? Is the show guilty of scaremongering? Would Britain have the diesel genera- tor infrastructure to cope in an extended blackout? Beebee thinks there are good reasons for concern. “I think it’s valuable the programme has made people think about these issues. The back-up infrastructure is not robust since it has never really been considered as an integrated item. Work is being done in this area, but if people nonchalantly think they could hire a rental generator to come to the rescue once the lights are out they’d be in for a shock. Mobilising and fuelling them in sufficient quantity to make a real differ- ence would be impossible.”


Summary


AMPS are already working alongside the National Grid and the govern- ment’s Department of Energy & Climate Change (DECC) to improve energy security and prepare for emer- gency scenarios.


Beebee concluded, “For diesel genera- tors I think we need to develop short and long term contingency planning. Short term, I think we need a strategy for allo- cating the available hire fleet to strategic locations in the event of an emergency. If suitable generators were identified now it would make the processes far smoother in the event. Longer term, with grid integration of diesel generators stan- dardised, generators that provide back- up to businesses - such as banks and data centres - should actually be sub- sidised with the proviso that power be available to the government in the event of a national emergency.”


AMPS www.amps.org.uk T: 08456 448 748


Enter 214 DECEMBER/JANUARY 2014 Electrical Engineering


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