FEATURES
Regional Metrics of U.S. Mall Sales Productivity
A Decade and a Half of Mall Performance in 10 Select Metro Markets JOHN CONNOLLY
Abstract: ICSC has recently expanded its U.S. mall-performance dataset to include nine additional metro markets. These regional data quantify annual aggregates of sales per-square-foot benchmarks, spotlight performance patterns and suggest markets that follow similar trends. Highlights of the data include solid productivity growth in Miami, Atlanta and Denver over the past three years.
Introduction In 2013, ICSC expanded its U.S. mall dataset1 to
include nine additional Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA): Chicago, Detroit, Minneapolis, Atlanta, Miami, Washington D.C., Dallas/Fort Worth, Denver and Los Angeles. These additional MSAs supplement the previously released New York metro, regional and national figures and provide a more detailed perspective on mall performance. This expanded dataset represents a significant advancement for researchers seeking to quantify mall sales performance in their local markets.
Metro Market Comparison Between 1996 and 2012,2 the average annual national
sales per-square-foot (psf) was $3963 (as shown in Chart 1-1) and six of the 10 metro markets exceeded the national average over that period. The Washington D.C. metro had the highest average sales psf ($576) of all the available MSAs, while Dallas/Fort Worth has the lowest sales psf ($343). Detroit was the only one of the 10 metros that did not
post record sales psf in 2012. (See Table 1-1.) On the other hand, Miami sales psf stood at $757 last year, which greatly exceeded the national 2012 productivity average by $302.
$100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700
$0 Chart 1-1
Mall Average Annual Sales Per Square Foot for Selected Metro Markets (1996-2012)
$576 $513 $491 $396 $440 $430 $414 $391 $372 $361 $343 National Average
Source: ICSC Research Between 1997 and 2012 the geometric average4 of the
U.S. national annual growth was 1.0%. As shown in Table 1-2, six of the 10 metro markets in this discussion have outpaced national sales productivity growth over this period. The Miami metro had the largest average annual growth (+2.9%), while Detroit (-1.8%) was the only market of the 10 that declined. It is important to note that These 10 MSAs account for roughly one-third of the
1 The U.S. Mall Performance dataset is comprised of monthly series based on a sample of approximately 500 regional and super-regional malls. The data are compiled from non-anchor tenant sales and gross leasable square feet for leased space from the mid-1990s to 2012. The data are annually benchmarked, and chain-weighted using the most recent dataset available, while preserving the historical year-over-year growth rates recorded in
the original data. 2 The first full year of data for all 10 listed metro markets. 3 All figures are in U.S. dollars. 4 Geometric average/mean measures the central tendency of a series of numbers by taking the nth root of the product, where n is the number of
items in the series. It is often used when finding an average for numbers as growth rates. 1
INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL OF SHOPPING CENTERS 1 RETAIL PROPERTY INSIGHTS VOL. 20, NO. 1, 2013
National
Washington D.C. Miami
New York Denver
Los Angeles Atlanta
Chicago Detroit
Minneapolis Dallas/Fort Worth
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