20 • ICO Report • C&CI May 2013
A direct appeal is to be made to the government to improve matters.
German growth
highlighted Also during the week-long session, the ICO held a seminar on trends in new coffee markets and released two new studies – one on re-exports of coffee and the other on the soluble coffee market. The “dynamic growth” of the coffee industry in Germany, particularly from 2000 to 2011, was highlighted by the first report. In the period, its re- exports accounted for 48.3 per cent of its average annual imports of 17.7 million bags – an increase largely made possible by the country’s extensive transport network well placed to handle coffee imported from producing countries and its onward shipment to other EU destinations. Also noted in the study were the falls in German imports of green coffee from Colombia and, to a lesser extent, Guatemala and the increased market shares of Brazil and Vietnam.
Coffee market situation (million 60kg bags) WORLD PRODUCTION
WORLD TOTAL Brazil
Vietnam
Indonesia Colombia Ethiopia
WORLD CONSUMPTION WORLD TOTAL
Exporting countries Traditional markets Emerging markets
Colombian milds Other milds
Brazilian naturals Robustas
WORLD EXPORTS (value US$ billion) WORLD TOTAL
Colombian milds Other milds
Brazilian naturals Robustas
Its Central American members called on the agency to “show leadership” in supporting national and regional measures already in place to tackle the leaf rust epidemic
Many exporting countries have encouraged the establishment of soluble coffee processing units, mostly in partnership with two multinational companies, which control over 75 per cent of the world market, according the other ICO study. However, it noted that, although significant increases were observed in some exporting countries, the share of soluble coffee in exports of all forms of coffee remained around 12.5 per cent in the period 2000-2011. The ICO’s research shows that Ecuador, Thailand, India and Mexico have noticeably larger shares of soluble in their total coffee exports, that the soluble coffee trade with emerging markets (particularly Russia, Ukraine, Turkey) has shown “considerable momentum” and that soluble coffee re-exports are dominated by Germany.
2011/12* 144.40 43.48 24.10 8.62 7.65 6.80
2002 111.2
28.4 65.1 17.7
WORLD EXPORTS (volume) 2011 WORLD TOTAL
26.1 32.2 37.5
2011 24.9 3.2 8.0 8.6 5.1
*Crop year, beginning September, April or July Source: ICO (includes estimates).
Seminar on trends in new consuming markets
Strong demand for coffee from new markets – the driving force behind the 2.5 per cent average annual growth in world consumption over the past 10 years – seems set to continue, thereby favouring Robustas as long as the variety remains competitive against Arabicas, according to speakers at the ICO’s seminar on March 5. In fact, these markets (producing countries and non-traditional coffee importers, such as Russia, Ukraine, China and South Korea) could before too long account for over half of all world demand, J Ross Colbert of Rabobank said. The motors of growth listed by him and other speakers included a growing middle class of urban professionals, rising incomes and the emergence of a coffee culture.
Robert Simmons of LMC International assessed the impact of new markets on the world supply-demand balance, estimating that they were responsible for 80 per cent of the annual increase in global consumption of 2.5 million bags. Judy Chase-Ganes of Ganes Consulting concentrated on the outlook for soluble coffee, which in particular has benefited from the growth in demand from new markets. These, often enough traditionally tea-drinking countries, invariably turn to easily-prepared instant – the main outlet for Robusta beans – as they start to develop a taste for coffee. Carlos Brando of P&A International, meanwhile, focused on out-of-home consumption and Ramaz Chanturiya, of the Russian industry association, Rusteacoffee, on his country’s experience. Among the positive factor for further growth in demand there, he said, were the growing popularity of coffee with younger drinkers, attracted by its smart image, and rising living standards. In other presentations to the seminar, Toma Café’s Marcelo Jaramillo looked at the situation in Colombia and Lee Yunson of Terarosa at South Korea’s experience, noting the gradual rise in roast and ground’s share of total consumption (although soluble’s was still around 85 per cent) and the big rise in the number of coffee shops.
104.6 8.8
2012/13* 135.90 50.836 22.00 11.25 8.50 8.10
2012 142.2
43.4 72.9 25.8
2012 113.1 8.3
27.4 30.8 46.6
2012 22.5 2.5 6.9 7.1 6.1
% change 6.3
16.9 -8.6 30.5 11.1 19.1
Average annual growth (%) 2.5 4.3 1.1 3.9
% change 8.2
-5.6 5.3
-4.3 24.1
% change -9.6
-23.7 -13.7 -17.8 19.9
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