WHEN I FIRST travelled to Africa I was told that the continent resembled the shape of a human heart. While publishing in the continent may be less romantic there is still a vibrant publishing industry. Yes, there are challenges, as highlighted by the recent prosecutions, but publishers should not be deterred. Africa’s population is expanding at
a phenomenal rate and will surpass that of China by 2050. Te number of “middle-class” Africans (as defined as earning between $2–$20 a day) is set to reach 340–500million, with at least 50% of the population under the age of 16. Youth unemployment and poverty remain major issues, so to help eradicate poverty and increase employment the World Bank is seeking to increase the continent’s “human capital” and the potential for an individual to generate income. Education is essential, as a better educated workforce attracts more overseas investment, increases employment and raises earnings. Sub-Saharan Africa is growing
faster economically than anywhere else in the world, with projected GDP averaging 5% per annum over the next four years, and the demand for primary resources and agriculture pushing some countries into double-digit growth. Rising consumerism is becoming a factor as the emergence of a middle-class is attracting investors from other industries. By 2030 the top 18 cities in Africa will have a spending power of $1.3 trillion.
Viable trade markets For educational publishers the market can be divided into the state sector, which is donor-driven by overseas aid and the private sector, supported by the expanding middle class. Te state sector uses the tender model or ICB (International
With high-profile fines being meted out to Macmillan and OUP for business practices in Africa, Western companies might be understandably wary of trading on the continent. Yet, Stephen Tweed argues, despite flawed systems there are many reasons for publishers to continue to invest
Te bidding process is a flawed model which many publishers have criticised, highlighting weaknesses in procedure and the lack of transparency”
Competitive Bidding) to purchase textbooks. Tis is a flawed model that many publishers have criticised, highlighting weaknesses in procedure and the lack of transparency. Te system requires large upfront investment and fails to provide adequate protection. It is only when the system is changed and donors guarantee transparency, that investors can safely return. Te private sector is smaller, but
revenues are more predictable, sustainable and driven by supply and demand. Te biggest threat to local and international publishers is piracy and the illegal import of market- restricted titles, particularly tertiary books. Nigeria is by far the biggest
market in Sub-Saharan Africa with an estimated textbook value more than $114 million per annum (2009), but Kenya and Ghana also have viable and accessible private markets. African publishers compete on a
par with international schools publishers and can produce textbooks of good quality. Some international and local publishers have formed partnerships, sharing market knowledge, swapping expertise and information on digital publishing, as well as in the increasingly important area of assessment. Te growth in digital and mobile technologies in Africa will provide some publishers with opportunities to re-examine these markets, and think about
transformative new ways to teach children and grow the “knowledge economy”. It should be a collaborative and innovative process that not only looks at the new technologies but also existing ones, that provides for the children living in the slums, as well as the emerging middle class. Whatever your perceptions of
countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, they carry no more risk than countries elsewhere. Tere are rewards and challenges, but reform is quickening and the African lions are rising.
Stephen Tweed was formerly the Africa, Caribbean and Middle East regional director for Macmillan Education.
11 OCTOBER 2012 | THE BOOKSELLER DAILY AT FRANKFURT 23