FEATURE MARKET OVERVIEW ➤
Today, the opportunities for photonics-based suppliers to the PV industry are very different to the purchase-order frenzy that characterised 2009-2010. Many of these tool suppliers were aligned with technologies not driven by market- demand, PV manufacturers that are no longer in business, or turn-key process tool suppliers whose product offering to the PV industry is no longer valid. (Figure 2 shows the breakdown of laser-based tool revenues to the PV industry during 2011.) The only notable laser-based tool order (or framework contract) currently in force relates to process tool upgrades being performed by First Solar for new laser scribing equipment. However, this should be considered a one-time hit, with First Solar unlikely to add any new capacity in the next 18-24 months. The focus on cost-reduction is having a
stronger pull however on tooling that improves product quality and yield, and this is creating new opportunities for inspection tools across the value-chain. In the upstream segment, the push from GCL and ReneSola to introduce quasi, or cast-mono based ingots (seeded directional solidification processes) – as a low-cost alternative to pure mono-pullers – is placing more scrutiny on surface and sub-surface inspection at the wafer-stage (as compared to manual/visual-based inspection). At the cell and module level, increased automation and inline inspection is being
THE VIEW FROM EPIC
Photovoltaic industry revenues reached a record $93bn in 2011, a 13.4 per cent increase over $82bn in 2010, and a 150 per cent increase over revenues in 2009. Worldwide, 27.4GW of PV were installed, bringing cumulative PV electrical generation capacity to 68GW at the end of 2011. EPIC’s data shows that installations grew by 56 per cent compared to 2010. Europe remains the leader for deployment, accounting for more than 63 per cent of the PV installations worldwide. About 27 per cent of all the installations worldwide took place in Germany. These percentage figures are lower than those for 2010, and they indicate the growing importance of PV markets outside of Europe, and in particular in China. In Europe, 41GW of electrical
6 PHOTOVOLTAICS 2012
generation capacity from all sources were installed in 2011. This can be compared to 57.6GW in 2010. This decrease is due in part to the economic recession, which strengthened in Europe throughout the year. For the first time ever, more PV generating power was installed in Europe than any other energy source, surpassing both natural gas and wind turbine generation. New EU PV at 17.3GW out-paced natural gas installations by 58 per cent. However on a worldwide basis, wind power remains the dominant new renewable energy source with installations of over 40GW in 2011. By 2011, the cumulative installed PV generating base reached 68GW. By comparison, this represents about 28 per cent of the installed wind base of 238GW.
In terms of production, 7.6 per cent more wattage of PV cells was manufactured than generating capacity installed (29.5GW compared to 27.4GW). Inventories at the end of 2011 amounted to less than 1 month. Our figure of merit (the ratio of total sector revenues to installed PV generation capacity) for 2011 improved significantly to US$3.53 per watt by 24 per cent compared to US$4.6 per Watt in 2010. PV production volume is now dominated by manufacturing in Asia where China and Taiwan now account for about 74 per cent of the world supply. Production by European companies declined sharply in 2011 to less than 6 per cent of the global total. Because many of the remaining companies manufacture some of
their products in Asia, the actual amount of manufacturing activity in Europe is even less significant. The EPIC Photovoltaic Report is distributed to EPIC members as part of their membership benefits.
About EPIC EPIC, the European Photonics Industry Consortium, is a membership-led non-for-profit organisation that promotes the sustainable development of organisations working in the field of photonics. Its objective is to foster a vibrant photonics ecosystem by maintaining a strong network and acting as a catalyst and facilitator for technological and commercial advancement.
www.epic-assoc.com
implemented by Chinese producers to lower manufacturing costs, improve yields, and maximise efficiency binning during cell sorting. But perhaps the one technology trend that has infiltrated most new c-Si cell production lines is the use of double printing of front contacts on cells, with alignment accuracy now being a prerequisite. Elsewhere in cell/ module production, the high-efficiency drivers for laser-based tools and inspection steps is still largely without any concrete roadmap, making equipment deployment still randomly located at tier one and tier two fabs.
Leading indicators
When viewing the conditions that need to emerge within the PV industry in order for photonics-based tool suppliers to have confidence in future technologies and demand levels, several key metrics can be used to assess the timelines involved.
End-market demand needs to approach
the 40GW-level before leading tier one manufacturers are likely to consider adding any new capacity. In addition, some 10-20GW of uncompetitive capacity needs to be permanently idled and not brought back online during 2013-2014. From a technology standpoint, it is difficult to see any scenario in the short-term that would provide new thin-film fabs to come online, other than Solar Frontier or a handful of
European fabs whose investments were signed off during 2010-2011. But perhaps the most important leading indicators on technology trends will have to wait another 12 months to unfold, once cost- reduction efforts have been exhausted and there is no longer any scope to drive down cash-costs. At this stage also, the outcome of the upstream cast-mono activity may be easier to assess. The fall-out of the virtual investment boom of 2010-2011 is particularly painful today for tool suppliers that had aligned their operations to focus exclusively on the PV industry. In 2013 the industry survivors might align on a real PV technology roadmap. If this happens, new product development by photonics-based tool suppliers to the PV industry will become a lower-risk proposition than it is today. l
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
As vice president, Dr Finlay Colville leads the Solarbuzz team of analysts dedicated to PV market research and strategic consulting activities. He is a frequent speaker at industry engagements and industry events worldwide, and is a regular contributor to trade magazines and online newsletters. He previously served as director of strategic marketing for Coherent’s solar business unit.
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