MARKET OVERVIEW
FEATURE
and Europe, this assumption was not entirely displaced. However, end-market reality told a different story. Today, the majority of thin-film manufacturers have exited the industry, with high-profile insolvencies receiving headline exposure.
Only two thin-film manufacturers are
currently running thin-film capacity levels in excess of 500 MW: First Solar and Solar Frontier. And each of these companies is now pursuing a downstream projects-based business that eliminates the requirement to stand alone as a pure-play manufacturer of thin-film PV panels.
PV modules based upon crystalline-silicon
(c-Si) process flows are now accounting for more than 90 per cent of PV market-share, and this figure is likely to increase further in the next few years. Polysilicon contract-pricing is hovering at the $20/kg level today, almost
an order of magnitude lower than a few years ago when polysilicon shortages were a strong factor in stimulating VC investment into thin- film alternatives. Figure 1 illustrates market- share trends for the different technologies in PV manufacturing from 2005 and forecast out to 2013, highlighting the thin-film peak in 2009 (driven by First Solar, UniSolar and a few others) and the decline in thin-film technologies moving forward to 2013. Within the c-Si supply-chain, manufacturing is still dominated by ‘standard’ process flows today, with limited adoption of high-efficiency variants. Many of the ambitious c-Si roadmaps that had created strong interest for PV equipment suppliers have turned out to be no more than R&D or academic-driven wish-lists for new technology implementation. Coupled with the price/cost imbalance discussed above, c-Si technology roadmaps are now second
Figure 1: Market-share trends for c-Si and thin-film alternatives between 2005 and 2013 reveal a spike in thin-film adoption between 2008 and 2010 before a return to c-Si dominance.
100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 0%
2005 CdTe 2007 CIGS R2R a-Si/uc-Si R2R 2009 2011 CIGS Glass a-Si/uc-Si Glass c-Si 2013
choice to short-term cost-reduction measures to restore profitability.
Implications for photonics equipment suppliers
Supply of photonics-based components to the PV industry has typically been comprised of laser-based tools (originally for laser edge isolation, and then for thin-film patterning) and imaging/inspection based equipment for quality control and during the testing and sorting stages. During 2010 and 2011, a number of new and diverse applications emerged, driven largely by the ambitions of many thin-film entrants and c-Si manufacturers attempting to ramp novel cell concepts into mass production. This diverse range of opportunities provided rich pickings for a select group of tool suppliers, but little in the way of long-term repeat business from different prospects.
Figure 2: Laser-based process tool suppliers addressed a US$330 million revenue opportunity into PV manufacturing during 2011, driven by a wide range of process steps across different PV technologies.
c-Si Edge Isolation
Thin-Film BIPV c-Si Front Surface HE Cells
Thin-Film P4 / Border Deletion
Thin-Film P1-P3 (CdTe)
All Others c-Si Rear Surface
Thin-Film P1-P3 (CIGS)
Thin-Film P1-P3 (a-Si)
Notes
1. Adapted from Solarbuzz PV Equipment Quarterly report 2. c-Si Front Surface HE Cells includes: PSG doping, precursor layer doping, SiN ablation, dual SiN ablation/doping
3. c-Si Rear Surface includes: rear contact isolation, passivation layer openings, laser fired contacts, back-junction patterning 4. All Others includes: c-Si TSV drilling, ID marking, soldering
PHOTOVOLTAICS 2012 5
➤
Carlo Taccari/shutterstock
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28