THECHAMBEROFSHIPPINGANNUALREVIEW2011–2012 The key challenges facing the global economy
are sovereign debt and government budget deficits, particularly in the Eurozone. This is being tackled by means of concerted and painful fiscal tightening and, according to the IMF, G7 countries’ budget deficits should improve from 9.3 per cent of combined GDP in 2010 to 7.9 per cent in 2011; this reduction should then continue to reach 4.2 per cent by 2016. Data for the first nine months of 2011 from
the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) shows world trade growth of 6.8 per cent compared to the same period the previous year, with the full year result unlikely to improve much on that figure. That overall figure of 6.8 per cent represents growth of 6.0 per cent in OECD countries, compared with 8.2 per cent for non-OECD. The difficulties faced by the global economy are likely to remain in 2012, particularly in Europe, which suffers from weak output exacerbated by continuing fiscal retrenchment that is unlikely to be fully offset by growth in the developing world. It is, therefore, expected that the world economy will grow by 3.8 per cent in 2012, down from 3.9 per cent in 2011 and 5.2 per cent in 2010. Looking at seaborne trade, Clarksons, in its
autumn Shipping Market Outlook, emphasised the world’s dependence on Asia and other emerging markets for growth. China again leads the way with a projected eight per cent growth in imports. For other Asian countries performance was varied; the Japanese industrial economy continued to decline with South Korea, India, Thailand and Malaysia growing more slowly than previously. South America’s recent strong growth had also slowed somewhat. At that time it was suggested that total seaborne trade growth in 2011 would be no more than three per cent.
Direct employment by type of activity 2004-2009
Employment
120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0
Onshore UK Ratings Non-UK Ratings UK Officers Non-UK Officers 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: Chamber of Shipping and Oxford Economics 2008 2009
24 21 18 15 12 9 6 3 0
Jan 2000
IN THE MOST
DIFFICULT TRADING CONDITIONS, UK SHIPPING CONTINUES TO SHOW
TREMENDOUS RESILIENCE
UK shipping The Office for National Statistics’ figures for 2010 show a strong performance by the UK shipping industry with turnover up by £1bn from the previous year to £12.6bn. With both overseas earnings and expenditure increasing, the contribution to balance of payments both direct and overall were little changed at £4.3bn and £6.3bn respectively. Exports of services for the whole UK economy amounted to £171bn in 2010, up by £3.6bn and two per cent on the previous year. For sea transport, within which UK shipping is a major component, exports rose by £500m to £9.6bn, leaving it marginally behind air transport as the fourth largest export service earner. The Department for Transport has not produced
UK fleet data since the end of 2010 due to development of their vessel database, and that figure showed a notable downturn in both measures of the fleet for the first time in a decade. However, Clarksons shows the UK flag fleet at the end of 2011 at 1,352 ships of 18.7 million GT (including non-cargo ships, such as offshore, dredgers and tugs). This puts the UK in 11th place in the world and represents a 6.6 per cent increase over the year. In terms of beneficial ownership, the UK fleet was in 18th position, with 1,244 ships of 12.7 million GT and an estimated value of $16.3bn. The order book for this fleet showed 69 vessels of 1.4 million GT and with an estimated value of $4bn. Yet again, in the most difficult trading
conditions, UK shipping continues to show tremendous resilience. These latest figures indicate a remarkably strong performance, with the fleet growing and continuing to earn valuable revenue for the country.
UK-owned and UK-registered fleets 2000–2011 (Mn Dwt)
UK-owned UK-registered
Jan 2001
Jan 2002
Jan 2003
Jan 2004
Jan 2005
Jan 2006
Jan 2007
Jan 2008
Jan 2009
Jan 2010
Jan 2011
MARKET OVERVIEW 7
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