EDITORIAL COMMENT


Chinese carrier approaches completion


It will be many years before Chinese naval air power can rival that of the US Navy.


an enormous amount of press coverage around the world, some of it reasonably well informed, and much of it downright idiotic. One ‘think piece’ in a US-based publication that I read recently even suggested that in building an aircraſt carrier China was trying to provoke an arms race with the US that would lead to the financial meltdown of America (even though the US Navy already has 11 fully operational strike groups). Te story is that the General Staff of the


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People’s Liberation Army (PLA) recently confirmed that China’s first aircraſt carrier is under construction. Tat this is the case has long been understood in defence circles, only the status of the programme was in question. To be more accurate, China is not actually building a carrier, it is completing the former Russian carrier Varyag. General Chen Bingde did not actually say


when the carrier would be completed, and a member of his staff was quick to point out that “the carrier would pose no threat to other nations”. He was speaking to the Hong Kong-based Commercial Daily newspaper at the time. Lt Gen Qi Jianguo, assistant chief of the


general staff, told Commercial Daily that even aſter the aircraſt carrier was deployed, it would “definitely not sail to other countries’ territorial waters”. “All of the great nations in the world own


aircraſt carriers – they are symbols of a great nation,” he was quoted as saying, noting that China had always followed what he called “a defensive” principle for its military strategy. Work on the carrier at Dalian, in


northeast China, is one of the country’s worst-kept secrets. Te carrier was built for


Warship Technology July/August 2011


ews that People’s Liberation Army (Navy, PLAN) is close to complet- ing an aircraſt carrier has provoked


the former Soviet Navy in the Ukraine, but was never completed. In April, in a report for Congress by the


Congressional Research Service (CRS), analyst Ron O’Rourke looked at Chinese military modernisation as a whole. His analysis is a lot more reasoned than some that has been written recently but unfortunately did not attract as much coverage as Commer- cial Daily. “China is completing... Varyag, which China purchased as an unfinished ship in 1998. Observers expect the ship to enter service in 2011 or 2012, probably as an aviation training ship,” said Mr O’Rourke. “Observers also believe China will soon begin building its first indigenous aircraſt carrier, or has begun to do so already, and that China may build a total of one to six indigenous carriers in coming years.” “China... has been in negotiations with


Russia to purchase up to 50 Russian-made carrier-capable Su-33 fighter aircraſt, and may be developing indigenous carrier- capable fighters.” The CRS report went on to say that


“China has an active aircraſt carrier research and development programme. The PRC shipbuilding industry could start construc- tion of an indigenous platform by the end of this year… China is interested in building multiple operational aircraſt carriers with support ships in the next decade. Te PLA Navy has reportedly decided to initiate a programme to train 50 pilots to operate fixed- wing aircraſt from an aircraſt carrier. Te initial programme, presumably land-based, would be followed in about four years by shipborne training involving the ex-Varyag.” Even if the carrier is ready to undertake sea trials by the end of 2011, it could be a long time before it is operating aircraſt. In an April 2011 hearing before the Senate


Armed Services Committee, Senator John McCain asked Admiral Robert Willard, Commander US Pacific Command, how would the successful deployment of a Chinese aircraſt carrier change the percep- tion of balance of power in the Pacific? Te Admiral answered: “Based on the feedback that we received from our partners and allies in the Pacific, I think the change in perception by the region will be significant. We recognize that when their rebuilt aircraſt carrier begins its sea trial period and test and evaluation period… that there will be a long period of training and development and eventual exercising preceding any operational capabil- ity that it could demonstrate. “But I think as a symbol... this step by the


Chinese in the midst of what has otherwise been a remarkable growth in their military capability is significant.” Reports such as the one produced by the


CRS rarely ere on the side of caution when estimating the military strength of potential rivals, and even when the ex-Varyag does go to sea for the first time it could easily be another decade before the vessel is fully operation – if it ever is. Over time, the introduction of a Chinese


carrier force undoubtedly will affect the maritime balance of power in Asia (especially the balance of power vis-à-vis the US Pacific fleet), but until China has a carrier force – rather than a single vessel – and has experience of operating aircraſt from that vessel, the balance of power is unlikely to be greatly affected. China is however involved in a number of regional territorial disputes in areas such as the Spratly islands, and a Chinese carrier is much more of a concern to neighbouring countries than it ever will be to US hegemony in the region. Building a carrier force and all of its support elements takes decades. WT


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