NEWS
The Health Secretary, Andrew Lansley, has released figures to back the case for NHS reform, saying the health service in its present form will not be able to cope with the rising number of people with long-term condi- tions.
He said that by 2050, there will be a 252% increase in the number of people over 65 with one or more long-term conditions, including diabetes, arthritis, asthma and heart and lung disease.
The Department of Health called it a ‘ticking time bomb’, adding in a statement: “The NHS will not be able to meet this increase in demand unless it changes. Add to that the fragmented and ineffi- cient way the NHS currently looks after people with long-term con- ditions and the health service just won’t be able to cope a few years from now.”
Modernise
Lansley said: “The average cost of someone without a long-term condition is around £1,000 per year, which rises to £3,000 for someone with one condition and to £8,000 for people with three or more conditions. The additional associated cost pressure of car- ing for people with multiple co- morbidities could reach £4bn by 2016.
“That’s one reason why we need to modernise the health service and the way we care for patients.
“There isn’t a one size fits all so- lution to our health – particularly for those who have a number of different conditions. The modern- ised NHS will see local health ex- perts in charge of commissioning services.
“They will have the power and the budget to put the overall health of their patient first – rather than having to pigeon-hole people by individual illnesses.”
Record satisfaction Polling data on NHS satisfaction,
on the Department of Health’s own website.
International comparisons
Professor John Appleby of The King’s Fund has also attacked the Government over its use of statistics, especially when using international comparisons to crit- icise current NHS performance.
Writing in the BMJ, he said: “The official ministerial briefing for the Health and Social Care Bill states that despite spending the same on healthcare, our rate of death from heart disease is double that in France.
“Although statistics from the OECD confirm that in 2006 the age standardised death rate for acute myocardial infarction was around 19/100,000 in France and 41/100,000 in the UK, comparing just one year – and with a coun- try with the lowest death rate for myocardial infarction in Europe – reveals only part of the story.
meanwhile, provoked a debate after ministers were accused of ‘burying’ evidence of record sat- isfaction with the health service for political reasons.
Professor Raj Bhopal, of the Uni- versity of Edinburgh, was quoted in The Observer newspaper as saying: “Justifying NHS reforms by picking a few statistics that cast doubts on the UK’s renowned healthcare system is worrying, but choosing statistics that are widely
“Not only has the UK had the largest fall in death rates from myocardial infarction between 1980 and 2006 of any European country, if trends over the past 30 years continue, it will have a lower death rate than France as soon as 2012.”
questioned reminds me of previ- ous government briefings that led to dodgy dossiers.”
It turned out the Ipsos MORI data, which did indeed show that pub- lic satisfaction, at 72%, was the highest it had been since the first survey in 2000, had actually been published in December 2010.
However, it was published only in the House of Commons Library and the ‘deposited papers’ page of the Parliamentary website, following a question by Leices- ter West Labour MP Liz Kendall, answered by health minister Paul Burstow.
Andrew Lansley 8 | national health executive Mar/Apr 11
Following the media interest in the story, the polling data was then also published more prominently
He added: “Our apparently poor comparison with other countries on cancer deaths has also been a key argument for reforming the NHS. However, comparisons are not straightforward and depend where you look.”
Dr Chaand Nagpaul also raised the issue at the BMA special representative meeting in March, saying the Government should have known that the UK leads Europe in the reduction of breast cancer mortality rates, and that the UK beats France on male lung cancer death rates.
FOR MORE INFORMATION England’s authoritative source of health and social care data is the NHS Information Centre. Visit
www.ic.nhs.uk
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