Chinese manufacturers
AVIC’s MA60 turboprop uses Western engines, propellers and avionics.
that China will need 3,750 large commercial aircraft by 2029, about one in eight of the global requirement for 30,230 mainline and regional jets. It assumes annual RPK growth in China of 7.7% against a global growth rate of 5.2%, and predicts a 2029 fl eet of 4,439 commercial aircraft, made up of 687 regional, 2,950 single-aisle and 802 twin-aisle jets.
Embraer forecasts Embraer, which established Harbin Embraer Aircraft Industry with AVIC in 2003 to build ERJ-145s in Harbin, took a closer look at the regional jet market in its own November 2010 forecast. It predicted that China would take 950 jets with between 30 and 120 seats by 2029, a total comprising 20 with 30–60 seats, 425 with 61–90 seats and 505 in the 91–120 seat bracket. It also predicts that 120 turboprops will be needed. The Brazilian manufacturer says only 132 of China’s 1,520 operational civil aircraft in July 2010 had 120 or fewer seats, a far smaller proportion than in Europe or the United States. Quoting Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) fi gures, the Embraer forecast says there were 1,340 scheduled domestic routes in 2009. Demand in 79% of all domestic markets was under 300 daily passengers, and 23% of fl ights
34
HIGH-SPEED RAIL The World Bank compares the development of China’s air transport network to the growth of US railways on the early 20th century. At the same time, it calculates that by the end of 2012 the country will have more high-speed railway than the rest of the world combined – a total of 42 passenger lines covering 13,000 route kilometres with maximum train speeds of over 250km/h. The bank also found in a recent analysis that according to global experience high-speed rail lines have won 80% or more of the market for journeys of up to 500km, dropping to 20% at 1,000km. The eastern plain of China offers a rare combination of features that support high-speed rail, with a very unusual combination of high population density, rapidly growing disposable incomes and many large cities reasonably close together, creating a string of traffi c-rich city pairs. However, air transport seems more suited to the vast hinterland beyond.
departed with fewer than 100 passengers. Only 24% of routes had more than two daily fl ights, while 61% had one fl ight or less.
Regional aviation
Regional development, and by extension regional aviation, is one of the focuses of government policy going forward. While China’s major cities have big airports and are adding more, many of the new airports being built or planned have much more modest traffi c expectations. The newly opened fi fth airport in Tibet, at Xigase, the second largest city, was designed to handle 230,000 people and 2,580 movements by 2020. The benefi ts to remote communities are clear. A new airport in Mohe, near
the Russian border in the country’s extreme north, was built to handle 120,000 passengers a year. Previously a 20-hour rail journey from Harbin, Mohe is now just four hours from Beijing, and less than two hours from Harbin with China Southern’s A320.
Other routes seem certain to become much bigger. Since the fi rst scheduled services between Mainland China and Taiwan were launched in December 2008, for example, the number of weekly fl ights has grown to 420 and China plans to build four new airports and renovate four more in the West Strait Economic District on the mainland side of the Taiwan Strait.
RN
www.routes-news.com
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