FRIDAY, DECEMBER 3, 2010 MICHAELGERSON
A better way to deal with North Korea? I
t is a dirty secret—in aworld increas- ingly without secrets—thatmost na- tions have been quietly content with
the status quo ontheKoreanPeninsula. According to a WikiLeaked State De-
partment cable recounting a conversa- tion in May 2009, Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew believes that “Beijing sees a North Korea with nuclear weapons as less bad for China than a North Korea that has collapsed.” South Korea itself, in recent decades, has preferred to accommodate, evenappease,Pyongyang rather thanrisk a confrontation that would threaten Seoul’s economic achievements. America has been the least comfortable with an unstable gangster regime possessing nu- clear weapons, but neither negotiations nor sanctions have shifted North Korean behavior. This stalemate has been comfortable
for just about everyone — except the North Korean people, living in a nation whose borders define a prison camp. But the comfortable stalemate seems to be ending, atNorthKoreaninsistence. TheNorthKorean regime is fully capa-
ble of provocativemadness—aswhen, in 1976,NorthKorean soldiers hacked Capt. Arthur Bonifas to death with axes in the DMZ—but recent North Korean actions are not irrational. Since the Korean War armistice in 1953, Pyongyang has been contained by the military alliance be- tween South Korea and America, and by American nuclear deterrence. North Ko- rean provocations are designed to prove the alliance is toothless andto gainrecog-
nitionasanuclearpower.So, inthecourse of a week, the regime showed off a new “industrial-scale” uranium enrichment plant and shelled South Korean soldiers and civilians, in what is normally known as an act of war, but which, in this case, brought fewconsequences. “This isn’t the end,” saysNicholasEber-
stadt of the American Enterprise Insti- tute. “They are stepping up a game that escalates each time. And each time the North Korean side meets with less than devastating penalties, it moves to the stage beyond.” Eberstadt believes a third North Korean nuclear test is likely soon, alongwithmissile tests to solve technical problems in the delivery of nuclear war- heads. The outcomes of this dangerous game
are limited innumber. First, it is possible that Kim Jong Il’s
regime could continue its provocations and finally miscalculate. South Korea could be backed into a nationalistic cor- nerandbeforcedtoescalate. Inthepast—
RIGHT TURN
Excerpts fromJenniferRubin’s commentary on politics and policy:
voices.washingtonpost.com/right-turn
The deficit dance and 2012
The maneuvering in response to the
president’s debt commission has begun. The proposed mix of tax-rate reductions, spending restraint and adjustments to Social Security has made previously con- troversial Republican positions the stuff of responsible center-right
consensus.No wonder Sens. Tom Coburn (R-Okla.) and Judd Gregg (R-N.H.) and Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) have such kind words for the commission’s work. The reactionary left, nicely embodied
in Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-Ill.)—who at some point must realize she was there to have her views repudiated by centrist Democrats—is appalled at the proposals. When liberal pundits and union officials such as the AFL-CIO’s Richard Trumka denounce a modest step such as a freeze on federal workers’ pay as capitulation to the right, because the president failed to extract a concession from Republicans, it’s clear how ominous the plan must seem to liberals. For thosewhowager, here’s a relatively
safe bet: The commission won’t come close to the 14 votes it needs from its 18 members to force Congress to consider its plan (an outcome that was never in the cards), and President Obama will contin- ue to demonstrate an utter lack of leader- ship. It’s also a pretty safe bet that Republicans will create abudget proposal combining elements of the fiscal commis- sion plan, the equally dramatic entitle- ment reform plan authored by Ryan and former Federal Reserve vice chairman Alice Rivlin (which would include rede- signing Medicare and Medicaid to cap federal expenditures) and a plan to repeal Obamacare. That budget will pass the House and go to the Senate, where a handful ofSenateDemocrats perhaps will join the Republicans, while the left wing of the Democratic caucus filibusters. Re- publicans will chortle at Democrats’ new- found fondness for Senate procedure. And that formula sets the stage for 2012: the Bowles-Simpson/Ryan-Rivlin/no- Obamacare plan vs. Schakowsky’s. That’s a dream scenario for the GOP.
Oh, and if it could sucker-punch the administration into only a partial exten- sion of the Bush tax cuts, that would be almost too much to hope for.
KLMNO
EZ RE
as inthesinkinginMarchof theCheonan, a South Korean corvette — North Korea hasoftenimplausiblydenieditsculpabili- ty, allowing much of the South Korean public toclose its eyes andpretend.When shells fall on civilians in broad daylight, convenient illusions are dispelled. South Koreans had a visceral response to the deathsandevacuations, forcingPresident Lee Myung-bak to apologize for his ini- tially supine response and to promise greater (though unspecified) vigor in the future. It is not inconceivable that North Korea might push past some invisible tripwire of South Korean pride, drawing theUnitedStates intothe resumptionof a shootingwar. A second outcome seems more likely.
North Korea could find that its strategic calculations are correct: That none of its studied provocations will be enough to cause serious consequences. That South Koreans simply want to enjoy their well- earnedprosperityinsteadofengagingina heroic struggle that could destroy much of Seoul. That China still wants a buffer stateonitsborder,nomatterhowdanger-
ousandpoorlyrun.ThatAmerica,despite itspast commitments,hasno intentionof renewing its part in Harry Truman’s un- endedwar. But at some point this campaign of
North Korean escalation becomes unsus- tainable for America. “TheNorth Korean side,” says Eberstadt, “may eventually manufacture a crisis with a conventional attack on a U.S. base or target. Then the American president will have a choice: meeting American security responsibili- ties,whichmay involve ageneralizedwar, or a continuation of no response, no pen- alty—undermining the credibility of the U.S. alliance with South Korea. The U.S. might be seen as a missile magnet by South Koreans, causing an upswell that compels our exit.” There is, however, a third possible out-
come that has not been considered seri- ously enough — an option other than possible war or strategic humiliation. SouthKorea,AmericaandJapan,employ- ing their technology and vast wealth, could attempt to undermine the North Korean regime from within. An aggres- sive, sustained campaign to break the North Korean information embargo, ex- pose the barbarity and corruption of the regime to its own people, promote the work of dissidents and defectors, and encourage disloyalty among North Kore- an elites may or may not work. But the alternativesareincreasinglyunattractive.
michaelgerson@washpost.com
Ending our isolation in Asia
BY STANLEY A.WEISS T FABRICE COFFRINI/AFP/GETTY IMAGES
Wikileaks founder JulianAssange at a news conference inGeneva last month.
CHARLESKRAUTHAMMER
Throw the WikiBook at them
StateDepartment cables. Butwhile it is wise not to go into a public panic, it is delusional to think that this is merely embarrassing gossip and indiscretion. The leaks have donemajordamage. First, quite specific damage to
I
ourwar-fighting capacity. Take just one revelation among hundreds: The Yemeni president and deputy primeministerarequotedas saying that they’re letting the United Statesbombal-Qaedaintheir coun- try, while claiming that the bomb- ing is the government’s doing.Well, that cover is prettywell
blown.And giventheunpopularity of the Sanaa government’s tenuous cooperation withus inthewar against al-Qaeda, thiswillundoubtedly limitour free- dom of action against its Yemeni branch, identified by the CIAas the most urgent terrorist threat to U.S. security. Second, we’ve suffered a major
blow to our ability to collect infor- mation. Talking candidly to a U.S. diplomat can now earn you head- lines around theworld, reprisals at home, or worse. Success in the war on terror depends on being trusted with other countries’ secrets.Who’s going to trustusnow? Third, this makes us look bad,
very bad. But not in the way Secre- taryofStateHillaryClintonimplied in her cringe-inducing apology speech in which she scolded these awful leakers for having done a disservice to “the international community,” and plaintively de- plored how this hampers U.S. at- tempts to bring about a better world. She soundedlike a crossbetween
an exasperated school principal and aMissAmerica contestant pro- fessing world peace to be her fond-
estwish.Theproblemisnot that the purloined cables exposed U.S. hy- pocrisy or double-dealing. Good God, that’s the essence of diploma- cy. That’s what we do; that’s what everyone does. Hence the famous aphorismthat adiplomat is anhon- est man sent abroad to lie for his country. Nothing new here.What is nota-
ble, indeed shocking, is the admin- istration’s torpid and passive re- sponse to the leaks. What’s appall- ing is the helplessness of a super- power that not only cannot protect its own secrets but shows theworld that if you violate its secrets — massively,wantonly andmalicious- ly—there areno consequences. The cat is out of the bag. The
cables are public. Deploring them or trying to explain themaway, a la
Kalamazoo’s stimulus surprise A
BY CONORWILLIAMS
s you may know if you followed the America’s Next Great Pundit Contest: I’m a proud product of
Kalamazoo,Mich. (Yes, there really is a Kalamazoo. You can buy a T-shirt that confirms it.) And if you’ve ever heard of Derek Jeter, Greg Jennings, Bell’s Beer or Rogaine, you can thank Kalamazoo’s 80,000 residents living at the corner of Interstate 94 and U.S. Route 131, near theRust Belt’s buckle. Myhometownhas evenmoreto offer.
As communities across the country try to figure out what to do about falling property values, struggling schools and other symptoms of an ailing economy, Kalamazoo has a daring solution. It had a head start, because the
economic downturn came early to southwestern Michigan. In the 1990s, pharmaceutical jobs left forNewJersey, auto factories shut down and the unem- ployment rate approached 10 percent. Home prices slumped and the tax base dwindled. And Kalamazoo public schools were among the victims. Then in 2005, out of nowhere, came a
gesture of generosity that would change everything. A group of residents anony- mously established and endowed “The
Kalamazoo Promise,” offering Kalama- zoo public school graduates full tuition at any of Michigan’s prestigious public universities or colleges. The goal was to revitalize the schools but also the local economy and community. Even in the program’s infancy, the
results have been dramatic, halting the community’s hemorrhaging of jobs, population and money, according to a study by the consulting firm McKinsey & Co. In the Promise’s first two years, real estate values rose 8 to 10 percent (compared to an average statewide loss of 2 percent). Kalamazoo public school enrollment increased by more than 1,000 students. Instead of being shack- led to a deteriorating local economy threatened by an exodus of young, well- educatedworkers,Kalamazooisbecom- ing a more attractive location for eco- nomicinvestmentandinnovation. After all, companies can, at no cost to their bottom lines, offer prospective hires a perk that fewother towns canmatch. As a Teach for America alumnus
who’s interested in education reform, I find the Kalamazoo Promise particular- ly interesting. In contrast to other pri- vate cash infusions into public educa- tion systems—Facebook founderMark Zuckerberg’s recent investment inNew- ark’s schools comes to mind — the
t is understandable for the ad- ministration to underplay the significance of the WikiLeaks
Clinton, ismerely pathetic. It’s time to show a little steel. To show that such miscreants don’t get to walk away. At a Monday news conference,
Attorney General Eric Holder as- sured the nation that his people are diligently looking into possible le- gal action against WikiLeaks. Where has Holder been? The WikiLeaks exposure of Afghan war documents occurred five months ago.Holder is looking nowat possi- ble indictments? This is a country where a good prosecutor can indict a ham sandwich. Months after the first leak, Justice’s thousands of lawyers have yet to prepare charges against JulianAssange and his con- federates? Throw the Espionage Act of 1917
at
them.Andif that isnot adequate, if that lawhas beentoo constrained and watered down by subsequent Supreme Court rulings, then why hasn’t the administration prepared new legislation adapted to these kinds of Internet-age violations of U.S. security? It’s not as ifwe didn’t knowmore leakswere
coming.And thatmore leaks are coming still. Think creatively. TheWikiLeaks
document dump is sabotage, how- everquaint that termmay seem.We are at war — a hot war in Afghani- stan where six Americans were killed just this past Monday, and a shadowyworldwarwhere enemies from Yemen to Portland, Ore., are planning holy terror. Franklin Roosevelt had German saboteurs tried bymilitary tribunal and shot. Assange has done more damage to the United States than all six of those Germans combined. Putting U.S. secrets on the Internet, amedi- umof universal dissemination new in human history, requires a recon- ceptualizationof sabotageandespi- onage—andthe laws topunishand prevent them.Where is the Justice Department? And where are the intelligence
agencies on which we lavish $80 billion a year? Assange has gone missing. Well, he’s no cave- dwelling jihadi ascetic. Find him. Start with every five-star hotel in Englandandwork yourwaydown. Want to prevent this from hap-
pening again? Let the world see a manwhocan’tsleepinthesamebed on consecutive nights, who fears the long arm of American justice. I’m not advocating that we bring out of retirement the KGB proxy who, on a London street, killed a Bulgarian dissident with a poi- soned umbrella tip. But itwould be nice if people like Assange were made to worry every time they go out inthe rain.
letters@charleskrauthammer.com
he recent release of Aung San Suu Kyi from house arrest, after deeply flawed elections that allowed the military in
Myanmar, also known as Burma, to tighten its half-century-long grip on the country, raises numerous political questions: What comes next for her?Will the ruling junta engage her newly reconstitutedNationalDemocracy Par- ty?Will otherpoliticalprisoners be freed? While political headlines are filled with
uncertainty, recentbusinessheadlines arenot. It was reported lastmonth that Chinese com- panies had invested $10 billion inMyanmar’s economy from January through May. A Thai- Italian partnership signed a $10 billion con- tractNov. 2 to build amassive industrial zone on Myanmar’s coast — a project that Myan- mar’sdictator,
SeniorGen.ThanShwe, report- edly views as “an experiment in opening the largely state-controlled economy.” More than 30 companies, from Russian to Indian to French, are engaged in oil and gas exploration acrossMyanmar. Yet while American companies’ interest in
doing business in Myanmar has increased, Reuters reported last month, Western sanc- tions continue to preventAmerican participa- tion. Washington’s claim on the moral high
ground is admirable, if one sets aside the fact that the only people who continue to suffer from Western sanctions are the 50 million people ofMyanmar. After nearly two decades ofU.S.-ledsanctions thathavesought toisolate Myanmar’s military rulers, it is increasingly clear that the only nation really isolated in SoutheastAsia today is . . .America. By refusing to engageMyanmar because of
its repressivepractices,Washingtonhas forced that country’s leaders—whohavenoideahow to construct amodern economy—to emulate the nearest successful model: China. Than Shwe recently said as much, proclaiming his desire to “emulate China’s remarkable . . . transformationintooneof themost successful capitalist stories ever.” AlongtimeAmerican observer ofMyanmar
whowas recently inSoutheastAsia toldme: “A senior official from one country said, ‘Our people won’t even buy your jeans anymore, such is the grass-roots backlash. By abandon- ing the people of Myanmar to China, you Americans have squandered moral stature as theworld’s savior.’ ” But that perception could still be changed,
he added. “The real issue in Myanmar lies in the business
sector.This iswhereYankee inge- nuity canleadby example.” With the election over, America should do
four things: First, recognizethat further sanctionsmean
surrendering Myanmar to China. There is a good reason sanctions haven’t worked: Too many others don’t recognize them. The dissi- dent news agency Mizzima reported in July that from1988toearly2009,Myanmarattract- ed foreign investment worth $15 billion. In 2011-12,accordingtotheIrrawaddynewsagen- cy, the junta expects foreign investment to top $16 billion. ForChina,whichrecentlyapproved$90 bil-
lion in soft import-export loans for the junta, Myanmar represents a wealth of natural re- sources as well as direct access to the Indian Ocean — which is why Beijing is building oil andgaspipelines fromKunming, insouthwest China,
totheportofKyaukpyuinMyanmar.By 2012, they will carry 85 percent of China’s importedenergy. If theU.S. response to lastmonth’s elections
is, as rumored, a ban on U.S. dollar transac- tions with Myanmar, “China would have a blankslateinMyanmar foryears tocome,” says the longtime observer. Second, focus on capacity building. Myan-
mar’s economy was neglected for decades. Efforts have been made recently to build up foreign reserves, improve dialoguewith inter- national financial institutionsandissuebonds to finance the nation’s 2009-10 budget deficit (adeparture fromitspracticeofprintingmon- ey).
Washington should work with the Associa-
tion of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to build capacity in Myanmar — starting with governance training for newly elected leaders and the revival of the financial sector. ASEAN has incentivetoparticipate:Myanmar,amem- ber, remains the biggest hurdle to a U.S.- ASEAN free-trade agreement and to ASEAN’s goal of regional economic integration by 2015. Third, rebuild the agricultural sector. Sev-
Promise is transforming primary and secondary schools indirectly. Instead of funding everything the public schools might ask for, the Promise fundamen- tally changes the district’s guiding ob- jective. Now that every student can afford college, preparing students for college has become the district’s prima- ry concern. Consider the ramifications thishasfor thedevelopmentof teachers, course curricula, administrative priori- ties, parental and student expectations, and even attendance and behavioral policies. This is also a perfectway to cut across ideological lines in the education re- form wars. Small-government advo- cates get a chance to prove — as they often claim—that private philanthropy can address social injustices more effec- tively than public initiatives can. After all, what better way to shrink the size of government by proving its programs unnecessary? Meanwhile, progressives can applaud the emphasis on equal opportunity and the constructive ap- proach to improving student perfor- mance without demonizing teachers or administrators. Can every town expect a generous
anonymous gift to resuscitate its schools and local economy? No. But even while private donations are down
across the country, anumberofcommu- nities, includingDetroitandPittsburgh, are launching versions of a Promise program. The structure of these efforts varies: El Dorado Promise is funded by Murphy Oil, a local corporation, while the CollegeBoundScholarshipProgram in Hammond, Ind., is supported by taxes on local gambling. Different com- munities may need different models, but there are ways to make it work. This sort of local response to educa-
tion and economic challenges is exactly what we need right now. It’s no small part of the reason that Kalamazoo Cen- tralHigh SchoolwontheRaceto theTop Commencement Challenge this year and was rewarded by having President Obama speak at graduation. In his ad- dress, the president said: “I’m here tonight because I think that America has a lot to learn from Kalamazoo Central about whatmakes for a success- ful school in this new century.” He couldn’t be more right. If Americans want change, Kalamazoo is a great ex- ample.
ConorWilliams won the America’s Next Great Pundit Contest 2010 and for the next three months will be writing a weekly column and periodic blog posts for The Post. He can be reached at
punditconor@gmail.com
enty percent ofMyanmar’s people live in rural areas, and agriculture accounts for 40 to 50 percent of gross domestic product. Before World War II, Myanmar was the world’s big- gest exporter of rice. Misguided government policy has squandered that legacy. America should work with the U.N. Development Pro- gram and ASEAN to help build a bank-based rural credit system to bring Myanmar’s rice economy into the 21st century. Fourth, link theWest’s economic sanctions
to Myanmar’s economic policies. Currently, Westernsanctionswillbeliftedonlyifpolitical benchmarks are met. Those carrots have proved ineffective. Theymight be productive, however, if linked to economic concerns such as respect for private property, the lifting of arbitrary restrictions on private business and the creation of a working credit system. Eco- nomic benchmarks led to political change in Korea, Indonesia and Singapore. ForWestern companieseagertoenternewmarkets, itcould be ahuge opportunity. Acentury ago,Myanmar’s economywas the
region’s crown jewel. Korea and even China considered it a
rolemodel.The recent election was deeply flawed, but it provided hope for a new beginning. It’s time to end the U.S. isola- tioninSoutheastAsia andengageMyanmar.
Thewriter is founding chairman ofBusiness Executives forNational Security, a nonpartisan organization based inWashington.
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