10-07/08 :: July/August 2010
IDC : Worldwide Semiconductor Applications Forecaster http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=IDC_P19632
Worldwide Semiconductor Applications Forecaster International Data Corporation (IDC) expects global semiconductor revenue to reach $274 billion, $295 billion, and $344 billion in 2010, 2011, and 2014, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.8% over the 2009-2014 forecast period.
Strong double-digit PC semiconductor revenue growth in 2010 (greater than 35% year over year), primarily driven by mobile PC applications followed by strong growth in enterprise spending in 2011 and 2012, will help achieve a healthy CAGR of 12.2% (2009-2014) for the Computing Industry segment.
Double-digit semiconductor revenue growth in con- verged mobile devices (smartphones) is helping the Wireless Industry segment to achieve a record $59.3 billion this year. However, with average memory content in handsets stabilizing and continued pressu- re on pricing, high-single digit growth is expected to return in 2011 and 2012.
In the Industrial, Military and Aero, and Automoti- ve Industry segments semiconductor revenues are expected to achieve year-over-year growth of more than 20% in 2010 and a strong five-year CAGR of 13.2%, driven by new markets such as alternative energy, LED lighting, and increased semiconductor content in automobiles.
Semiconductor revenue for the Consumer Industry segment is expected to have muted growth of 5.8% year over year in 2010 and even less in the coming five years. While revenues for the DTV and media tablet markets are expected to show strong growth, those for the other device application markets, such as PMP flash, are expected to post sharp declines.
Among semiconductor devices, revenues for the Memory sector (DRAM and Flash) will reach $66.7 billion in 2010 (greater than 52% year-over-year growth), propelled by increased demand for memo- ry in mobile PCs, mininotebooks (netbooks), media tablets, and smartphones. But, with technology tran- sitions, increased price pressures, and more supply coming online, revenues for the memory market are expected to be flat or slightly decrease in 2011 and 2012.
Regionally, Asia/Pacific continues to grow its share of semiconductor revenues, reaching over 45% in 2014.
Worldwide semiconductor revenues decreased 9% year over year in 2009. Order rates are now norma- lizing after very exuberant rates in the fourth quarter of 2009 and the first quarter of 2010.