SUNDAY, MAY 16, 2010

KLMNO

F7

The fare checker: Please fasten your seat belts . . .

Airfares often appear to defy all logic. Traveling to the next state can cost more than flying across the country, flying out of an airport just a few miles away can save hundreds, and buying way in advance isn’t always a sure way to cut costs. We looked for patterns by tracking a specific round-trip flight on a competitive route.

On April 7, we started tracking the round-trip economy airfare for United Flight 846, departing May 7 from Washington Dulles at

9 a.m. and arriving nonstop in Los Angeles at 11:35 a.m., with a return on May 10 aboard United Flight 856 departing Los Angeles at 10:47 a.m. and arriving non- stop at Dulles at 6:48 p.m. We checked the price at different times of day from different com- puters at both United.com and Bing.com/travel. While our experiment is admit- tedly just a snapshot and not an extensive study, we looked for patterns or obvious reasons for price increases or decreases, in-

cluding seat availability, competi- tor’s sales and proximity to de- parture. Our conclusion: Pricing, at least on our flights, followed rhyme and reason, but was affect- ed by multiple causes. A few more details about our methodology and observations:  A sale from a discount carrier affects pricing. We tracked a Vir- gin America sale of $299 round trip from Dulles to LAX that was active when we started looking at our United flights. Virgin offered the sale through April 24. While

our specific flight pairing went to $373 11 days before the Virgin sale ended, United continued to offer other nonstops from Dulles to LAX for $299. On April 25, when Virgin raised its fare to $476, United’s cheapest nonstop went to $486.  The number of seats available is not a determining factor for pricing until a difficult-to-discern tipping point is reached, and it could very well apply to only one leg of the trip. We deliberately chose flights served by aircraft of

different sizes. We counted how many seats remained on each flight when checking the fare each day, and then looked at United fare prices for bigger jets with more available seats. The fare on our targeted flights per- manently jumped from the start- ing point of $299 to $373 when 70 seats remained on the departing flight, and 20 seats on the return. For our control flights, the fare jumped when 70 seats remained in both directions.  As the date of departure grows

Numbers in parentheses indicate the number of economy seats available each day, going and returning. The letter F indicates no seat assignments available, seats will be assigned at the airport.

APRIL

7

$299 (96/40)

8

$299 (96/32)

9

$368 (94/29)

10

$299 (89/29)

11

$299 (80/28)

12

$368 (78/26)

13

$299 (71/23)

14

$373

(70/20)

15

$373 (69/19)

16

$373 (69/19)

17

$373 (65/18)

18

$373 (66/18)

19

$373 (65/16)

20

$471

(58/14)

21

$461 (58/13)

22

$471

(56/13)

23

$471

(50/12)

24

$471

(48/11)

25

$648 (45/10)

26

$648 (44/10)

27

$663 (41/8)

28

$718 (29/F)

29

$718 (27/F)

30

$898 (27/1)

closer, starting at about two weeks before travel, fares go up much more quickly than they do early in the process. Early on, fares are more likely to stay sta- ble, or to even decrease for a day or two at a time. At the last min- ute, not unexpectedly, flights at odd hours with more open seats cost less. For example, on May 3, our targeted United flights were $1,013 round trip, but another United nonstop pairing, with 28 seats available on the red-eye re- turn flight, was $455.

— Carol Sottili

2

$888 (27/1)

MAY

1

$898 (27/1)

APRIL

*May 6. $1,699, 35 seats departing with first-class return (no economy seats remain on return flight). *May 7. $1,203, seats will be assigned at airport departing and returning. At least one economy seat again available on return flight.

3

$1,013 (22/2)

MAY

THE WASHINGTON POST

5

$1,478 (28/F)

7*

$1,203

4

$1,013 (26/F)

6

*

$1,699

Getaway or stay away? Travel hot spots

It feels as though we’ve been living a live-action Hollywood blockbuster this year, with tor- rential rains, floods, a menac- ing volcanic ash cloud, an eva- sive oil spill, violent political protests and gruesome drug hits. Where’s Superman when you need him? (Probably hiding out in his Fortress of Solitude.) To get a grasp of the situation in some of the hardest-hit destina- tions, we checked in with secu- rity experts from iJet Intelligent Risk Systems, local tourism of- fices and the U.S. State Depart- ment. Here’s the latest scoop.

 Greece

Anti-government protests

have made this country a secu- rity risk, especially in Athens and other larger urban areas. Martin Kleiber, iJet’s regional manager for Europe, calls the situation an “abstract threat hovering over the cities” and describes Athens as “a caul- dron.” Trouble is also brewing in port towns, due to a pending rule allowing international cruise ships to tie up at Greek docks. The law, which could af- fect the domestic cruise indus- try, is sparking protests. Political figures, not tourists, are the main targets, but for- eigners could become “inciden- tal victims,” says Kleiber. And although the strife may recede over the summer, Kleiber ad- vises travelers to weigh the risks of visiting the flashpoint areas — or head for the islands, which are peaceful for now. Info: Greece National Tour- ism Organization, 212-421-5777,

www.gnto.gr

 Eyjafjallajokull volcano ash

No one knows which way the

ash cloud is going to blow. So visiting Europe is a gamble, but one that Kleiber recommends travelers take. “There is no reli- able forecasting mechanism in place, and it becomes an ad hoc decision,” he said, referring to flight cancellations. “The ash is still over Europe, but that’s no reason to cancel a vacation.” If you go, he says, cobble together a contingency plan so you won’t get stranded. And if you’re wor- ried about inhaling volcanic particles, you can breathe easy: “There are no health concerns,” Kleiber says.

 Mexico

Despite unsavory reports out

of Mexico, Samuel Logan, iJet’s regional manager for the Amer- icas, says that major tourist areas are safe, including Aca- pulco, Cancun and the Yucatan Peninsula and, yes, even Tijua- na. “Since the end of February, the safety in Tijuana has im- proved a lot,” he says, adding that tourists are not on drug cartels’ “hit list,” though he warns that “collateral damage” can occur. The State Department bol- sters confidence in tourist areas. In a travel warning is- sued last week, the agency said that Mexico’s resort areas and tourist destinations do not wit- ness the kind of drug-related violence and crime reported in the border region and along major drug trafficking routes. But skip a July 4 holiday to

Mexico. That’s when many states are holding elections, and protests could arise. Places to avoid: Baja California, Oaxa- ca City and the Yucatan Penin- sula.

800-446-3942,

Info: Mexico Tourism Board:

www.visit

mexico.com

 Rhode Island

Torrential rains left Rhode Is- land underwater last month, but the big soak affected only a small area. Providence, Bristol, Newport and Block Island suf- fered only minor damage, and their attractions, accommoda- tions, restaurants and business- es are all open. And state beach- es will be ready for sunbathers by Memorial Day weekend. Info: Rhode Island Tourism Division, 800-250-7384, www.

visitrhodeisland.com

 Gulf Coast Oil Spill

The oil spill drama is far from

over, as the world watches the blob defy containment. The dis- aster is already affecting the seafood industry and scaring off tourists wishing to hit the white sand beaches of Louisi- ana, Mississippi, Alabama and even Florida. The black gunk hasn’t reached the coast yet, but it has washed up on an island off Louisiana. If conditions shift, the shores of Texas and Mexico could also be at risk, says Megan Wolfram, iJet’s re- gional analyst for the Americas. Wolfram suggests that tourists go farther east or west, to the Atlantic or Pacific coasts. Info: Mississippi Gulf Coast,

888-467-4853, www.gulfcoast.

org; Louisiana Office of Tourism, 800-444-8626, www.

louisianatravel.com; Visit

Florida, 850-488-5607, www.

visitflorida.com

 Nashville

Music City is resurfacing af- ter the recent floods. The power is back on, and all downtown hotels and attractions have re- opened, including the Country Music Hall of Fame and Mu- seum and the Nashville Zoo. Performances of the Grand Ole Opry are continuing as sched- uled at venues such as the Ry- man Auditorium, and the Gen- eral Jackson Showboat plans to be up and running this week. The Gaylord Opryland Resort and Convention Center, how- ever, isn’t so lucky: It will re- main shuttered indefinitely. Info: Nashville Convention & Visitors Bureau, 800-657-6910,

www.visitmusiccity.com/ visitors

DANIEL BELTRA/GREENPEACE, VIA REUTERS

Crews build sand barriers to block spilled oil in Alabama.

—Andrea Sachs and Nancy Trejos

To save money, depart from your travel norms

airfares continued from F1

nearly nonexistent. Bing Travel fareologist Joel Grus said that several factors are responsible for the run-up. “Prices were very low last summer, which makes the in- creases look high,” he explained. “Airlines have been cutting ca- pacity, so there are fewer seats. And demand seems stronger. More people are vying for those seats.”

Bing Travel’s initial forecast

for 2010 summer travel conclud- ed that, nationwide, domestic airfares have gone up 22 percent over 2009 (23 percent from Rea- gan National and Washington Dulles and 26 percent from BWI), and fares to Europe have risen by 29 percent (35 percent from National and Dulles; no fig- ures available from BWI). Grus doesn’t anticipate any

softening of fares in the near fu- ture, adding that they could go even higher if oil prices rise. If staying home is not an op- tion and the budget can only take so much, what’s a traveler to do? Some tips:

 For domestic travel, consid- er flying from BWI, where dis-

count carrier Southwest is a ma- jor presence. Even though fares have risen dramatically out of BWI, they’re still cheaper overall than those offered out of Dulles or National ($306 average com- pared to $332, according to Bing Travel’s figures). Discount carri- er AirTran also operates many flights from BWI, so you may get very lucky if flying on a competi- tive route. For example, the round-trip fare for nonstop flights this summer from BWI to Los Angeles, a destination served by both Southwest and AirTran, is at least $100 cheaper than fares from Dulles or Reagan National.

 Track the sales. Various trav-

el Web sites, including Yap- ta.com, Kayak.com, Farecom- pare.com, Bing.com/travel, Air- farewatchdog.com and Priceline. com, offer fare sale notifications. But also do your own check ev- ery day or so on at least one

Domestic airfares are up 22 percent over 2009. Fares to Europe are up 29 percent.

third-party booking site, such as Orbitz.com, Expedia.com and Travelocity.com. Also, find out what airlines fly to your destina- tion (flight guides are available for National and Dulles at www.mwaa.com, and for BWI at

www.bwiairport.com), and

check directly with the airline sites.

 Look at alternative airports.

For example, if you’re flying to Los Angeles, look at fares to Long Beach (one of JetBlue’s bas- es), Ontario International, John Wayne Airport in Orange County and Bob Hope Airport in Bur- bank. Most Web booking sites will allow you to conduct a search that includes nearby air- ports.

 Don’t check luggage. Most

legacy airlines, including Unit- ed, US Airways, Delta and Amer- ican, charge $25 for the first checked bag and $35 for a sec- ond checked bag (some offer $2 or $3 discounts per bag for pay- ing online). Southwest does not

charge for checked bags; JetBlue does not charge for the first checked bag.

 Consider a package, espe- cially to Europe. For example, a

six-night trip on Virgin Vaca- tions to London in mid-July starts at about $3,075 per cou- ple; the same trip, with airfare and hotel booked separately, would cost about $255 more.

 If the vacation destination is flexible, pick one with lots of

competition. Grus pointed to Boston, which is served from our region by nonstop flights on sev- en carriers, including three dis- counters, as a good value (and again, the fare out of BWI, where three discount carriers vie for market share to Boston, is typ- ically cheapest). Internationally, consider off-season summer des- tinations. For example, July and August is winter in Australia and New Zealand, so fares are cheap- er: A recent sale on Qantas from New York to Sydney was $1,090, cheaper than most fares to Eu- rope. In Costa Rica, summer is the rainy season, which typically means afternoon showers, and fares are about $410 round trip from Washington.

 When you find a reasonable fare, don’t hesitate. Fares can

change within minutes.

travel@washpost.com

Sottili is a Going Our Way and What’s the Deal? columnist for Travel. Page 1  |  Page 2  |  Page 3  |  Page 4  |  Page 5  |  Page 6  |  Page 7  |  Page 8  |  Page 9  |  Page 10  |  Page 11  |  Page 12  |  Page 13  |  Page 14  |  Page 15  |  Page 16  |  Page 17  |  Page 18  |  Page 19  |  Page 20  |  Page 21  |  Page 22  |  Page 23  |  Page 24  |  Page 25  |  Page 26  |  Page 27  |  Page 28  |  Page 29  |  Page 30  |  Page 31  |  Page 32  |  Page 33  |  Page 34  |  Page 35  |  Page 36  |  Page 37  |  Page 38  |  Page 39  |  Page 40  |  Page 41  |  Page 42  |  Page 43  |  Page 44  |  Page 45  |  Page 46  |  Page 47  |  Page 48  |  Page 49  |  Page 50  |  Page 51  |  Page 52  |  Page 53  |  Page 54  |  Page 55  |  Page 56  |  Page 57  |  Page 58  |  Page 59  |  Page 60  |  Page 61  |  Page 62  |  Page 63  |  Page 64  |  Page 65  |  Page 66  |  Page 67  |  Page 68  |  Page 69  |  Page 70  |  Page 71  |  Page 72  |  Page 73  |  Page 74  |  Page 75  |  Page 76  |  Page 77  |  Page 78  |  Page 79  |  Page 80  |  Page 81  |  Page 82  |  Page 83  |  Page 84  |  Page 85  |  Page 86  |  Page 87  |  Page 88  |  Page 89  |  Page 90  |  Page 91  |  Page 92  |  Page 93  |  Page 94  |  Page 95  |  Page 96  |  Page 97  |  Page 98  |  Page 99  |  Page 100  |  Page 101  |  Page 102  |  Page 103  |  Page 104  |  Page 105  |  Page 106  |  Page 107  |  Page 108  |  Page 109  |  Page 110  |  Page 111  |  Page 112  |  Page 113  |  Page 114  |  Page 115  |  Page 116  |  Page 117  |  Page 118  |  Page 119  |  Page 120  |  Page 121  |  Page 122  |  Page 123  |  Page 124  |  Page 125  |  Page 126  |  Page 127  |  Page 128  |  Page 129  |  Page 130  |  Page 131  |  Page 132  |  Page 133  |  Page 134  |  Page 135  |  Page 136  |  Page 137  |  Page 138  |  Page 139  |  Page 140  |  Page 141  |  Page 142  |  Page 143  |  Page 144  |  Page 145  |  Page 146  |  Page 147  |  Page 148  |  Page 149  |  Page 150  |  Page 151  |  Page 152  |  Page 153  |  Page 154  |  Page 155  |  Page 156  |  Page 157  |  Page 158  |  Page 159  |  Page 160  |  Page 161  |  Page 162  |  Page 163  |  Page 164  |  Page 165  |  Page 166