SUNDAY, MAY 16, 2010
KLMNO
primaries from A1
need to tell the same story, which is that voters are looking for something that is not in Wash- ington right now,” he said. In the past seven months, the discontent has taken many forms. Republicans have picked up the governorships of Virginia and New Jersey and, in a seismic shock, the Senate seat in Mas- sachusetts long held by the late Edward M. Kennedy. Last week- end, Sen. Robert F. Bennett (R- Utah) was defeated at a party convention; a few days later, Rep. Alan B. Mollohan (D-W.Va.) lost his primary. Whit Ayres, a Republican poll-
ster, said the contests this week — dubbed the Super Tuesday of 2010 — must be seen through this prism: “They will be another measure of the depth of anger at Washington and the current state of the country.” The marquee race is the Demo-
cratic Senate primary in Pennsyl- vania where Specter, who switched parties in 2009, is trail- ing Rep. Joe Sestak. Elected five times as a Republican, Specter defected to the Democrats be- cause he feared he might lose his bid for re-nomination in the Re- publican primary. Now he could lose as a Democrat, although he enjoys the support of Obama and the Democratic establishment. A second Democratic senator, Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas, is also fighting for survival, against Lt. Gov. Bill Halter. Whoever wins the Democratic nominations in those states will face stiff competition in the fall. Republicans have their own
intraparty warfare to contend with on Tuesday. Kentucky has become a laboratory for measur- ing the relative powers of the “tea party” movement vs. the GOP es- tablishment in the race to suc- ceed retiring Sen. Jim Bunning (R-Ky.). There, upstart Rand Paul is seeking the nomination against Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson, who enjoys the support of McConnell, the state’s preeminent Republican. Also, a special House election in western Pennsylvania to fill the vacancy created by the death of Rep. John P. Murtha (D) could provide clues to the prospects for Republicans to capture control of the House in November. In addition, Oregon is holding primaries Tuesday. That 2010 could be tough for
incumbents is hardly a surprise, given the mood of the voters. But some strategists say it is possible to read too much into the defeats of Bennett and Mollohan. In any normal year, Mollohan’s
defeat might have been written off to the baggage he carried from past ethics problems, al- though his vote for health-care reform was an important factor in the outcome. Bennett’s defeat was the work of a few thousand party activists, not an expression of voter sentiment across Utah. As one measure of compari- son, four House members were defeated in primary contests in 2008, two in 2006 and two in 2004. Only one senator lost a pri- mary during that time — Joseph I. Lieberman (I-Conn.) in 2006 — and he was reelected as an inde- pendent that fall. To the extent that voters are looking to penalize all incum- bents, Democrats would face the far harder hit this fall as the par- ty in power in Congress and the White House. “Being a GOP in- cumbent this fall is a much better proposition than it is for a Demo- crat,” said Republican strategist Terry Nelson. The more powerful anger is aimed broadly at Washington. Obama’s policies have sparked a significant backlash on the right, and many independent voters who backed him in his 2008 cam- paign have defected since he took office. “The results across the board show the public with no trust in Washington, D.C., and a feeling Washington, D.C., has no ability to do anything well,” said Mat- thew Dowd, a former campaign adviser to George W. Bush and now an independent analyst. “The country thinks D.C. is total- ly dysfunctional and is sick and tired of it.” In more placid times, voters
say they hate Congress but like their representatives. “The ques- tion is whether that wall of sepa- ration has been breached,” said Democratic pollster Mark Mell- man. “To the extent that in- cumbents lose in primaries, it helps suggest that those walls have been broken down.” Here is a closer look at the ma-
jor races on Tuesday: In Pennsylvania, Sestak was being recruited to run against Specter before the incumbent’s stunning party switch. In the af- termath, Sestak refused to back down even when the White House and Pennsylvania Demo- crats made clear that they would be behind Specter.
For much of the next year,
Specter held a wide lead based on superior name identification across the state. But with less than a month remaining in the primary, Sestak unleashed a tor- rent of ads that first detailed his résumé as a Naval commander and then attacked Specter. The most effective commercial
featured images of Specter being praised by former president George W. Bush and former Alas- ka governor Sarah Palin. But the most devastating images were of
Specter explaining, “My change in party will enable me to be re- elected.” Polling shows that Sestak has closed a double-digit gap with Specter in a few short weeks. The winner of the Democratic pri- mary will face former represen- tative Pat Toomey in the general election. In the southwest corner of the
state, a separate political drama with significant national import is playing out in the kind of cul- turally conservative district that
Republicans hope to win this fall. Murtha staffer Mark Critz (D) and businessman Tim Burns (R) are facing off in a race in which the two national parties have combined to spend nearly $2 million in independent expendi- tures. Outside organizations, particularly conservative groups, are also funding ads in the dis- trict. In Arkansas and Kentucky, there are dueling battles over the right direction to take the respec- tive parties.
S
From Page One
‘Super Tuesday’ of 2010 could give early insight into elections
The Arkansas race pitting Lin- coln and Halter has devolved into a proxy war between the in- cumbent and organized labor. Even Lincoln’s staunchest op- ponents acknowledge that she will probably finish first in Tues- day’s primary, which also in- cludes a little-known conserva- tive Democrat. The question is whether she can reach the 50 percent plateau needed to avoid a June 8 runoff with Halter. In Kentucky, the “tea party” movement looks poised to score
A5
its latest victory over the party establishment as ophthalmolo- gist Paul, the son of Rep. Ron Paul (R-Tex.), has held a steady lead over Grayson. Palin and Sen. Jim DeMint
(S.C.) have endorsed Paul, who has utilized the national fund- raising network built by his fa- ther during the 2008 presidential race. In the Democratic Senate pri-
mary, Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo began the race with a lead, but state Attorney General Jack Con- way has recently made up ground.
balzd@washpost.com chris.cillizza@
wpost.com
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