WEDNESDAY, MAY 5, 2010

KATHLEEN PARKER

market principles, limited govern- ment and individual liberty. Those are the three fundamentals of

No-party politics

N

o one doubts the sincerity or power of the Tea Party move- ment anymore. We get it: free-

the Tea Party’s “Contract From Amer- ica,” to which any serious Republican must subscribe, nay, sign in blood. Make it real red. Nowhere is this new power-to-the- people imperative in starker relief than in Utah — one of the nation’s red- dest states — where three-term con- servative Sen. Bob Bennett seems like- ly to lose the Republican Party nomi- nation this weekend. This, despite the fact that Bennett’s voting record earns an 84 rating from the American Conservative Union, an A ranking from the National Rifle As- sociation — and is nothing like a liberal’s.

But Bennett committed the ultimate sin in Tea Party circles. He voted for the Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP), a.k.a. “bank bailout,” during the George W. Bush administration. And, he advanced a market-driven health-reform bill as an alternative to the Democratic plan that, alas, also in- cluded an insurance mandate. Never mind that a Republican presi- dent proposed the bailout, or that many Republicans and free-marketers felt TARP was crucial to keep the econ- omy from capsizing. For those who have forgotten, the point was to prop up the credit system to keep enough money flowing so that the “free mar- ket” didn’t collapse entirely. What was the alternative? What might have happened without TARP? As Mitt Romney, who supported TARP, has said, “We were on a preci- pice. . . . Now we can sit back and say, ‘Oh, it wasn’t so scary.’ Well, frankly, it was a very scary time for a lot of peo- ple. And that’s something which was resolved.” Tea Partyers mostly upset about subsequent spending have cast a wide net, and any incumbent is liable to be snared — even the good ones, such as Bennett, who is widely respected in Washington and has been endorsed by establishment Republicans Newt, Mitt & Karl (Gingrich, Romney and Rove). Then again, being an establishment

favorite in an anti-Washington envi- ronment may be as disadvantageous as having an Ivy League degree. Those out-of-touch elites, you know. But in their rush to banish all but the purest fiscal conservatives, Tea Partyers risk losing some of their strongest voices and diminishing their power in an arena where relationships matter. Bennett, for example, worked

MICHAEL GERSON

my wife, my 91-year-old mother-in- law and daughters, 17 and 13. On TV there was a news report about the fi- nancial situation in Greece. Out of the blue, my 13-year-old said, ‘This is go- ing to be us pretty soon.’ I almost dropped my fork. This is an eighth- grader.” It sounds a bit like Jimmy Carter in 1980, telling the much-mocked story of a discussion on nuclear prolifera- tion with his 13-year-old daughter, Amy. But Pawlenty — all Midwestern, blue-collar candor — is nothing if not sincere. And his daughter’s macroeco- nomic judgment is disturbingly insightful. “Something is happening for the

first time of my adult life,” Pawlenty continues. “Average people, not activ- ists, are openly talking about debt and the deficit with an understanding that it matters. They know something is amiss. One of the driving sentiments is that government is out of control.” Pawlenty is among the least known of Republicans angling for his party’s presidential nomination in 2012. He estimates that 75 percent of the GOP has no idea who he is. But he exhibits the confidence of a man holding at least a few aces.

If the problem is deficits, Pawlenty

believes he is the solution. From 1960 to 2002, state spending in Minnesota increased by an average of 21 percent every two years. As governor, Paw- lenty has held the growth of spending to just over 2 percent annually. Last year, he cut state spending in real terms — the first time that has hap- pened in 150 years. “We cut every- thing except public safety and K through 12 education,” he says. “We changed the entitlement structure.” All while moving Minnesota off the list of the top 10 most heavily taxed states. Pawlenty is the successful conserva-

tive governor of one of the most liber- al states in the union — as if Ronald Reagan had been elected in Sweden. One explanation is his disarming, beer-sharing niceness, which is among Minnesota’s main exports to the nation (exception: the seething Sen. Al Franken). In normal circumstances, this vir- tue would be a pleasing contrast to President Obama’s increasingly touchy, brittle public persona. But there are drawbacks to being a nice guy in an angry time. No Tea Party ac-

Reagan in Minnesota?

“A

few days ago,” Minnesota

Gov. Tim Pawlenty relates, “I was having breakfast with

DAVID IGNATIUS

with Democrat Ron Wyden to co- sponsor his health-care proposal. What non-ideologues may see as co-

operation, however, is viewed by true believers as weakness. Any attempt at compromise is viewed as surrendering principle. Under the new order, a Good Conservative wouldn’t cross the aisle to perform a Heimlich maneuver. The long-promised purge is on, in other words, and anyone fantasizing about bipartisanship can choke on that hope.

If Obamaphiles have been sipping

Kool-Aid, Bennett’s primary challeng- ers have been steeping in the bitter tea of an angry electorate. Indeed, more than two-thirds of delegates to the up- coming Utah Republican convention consider themselves Tea Party supporters. Much the same is happening in oth-

er states. In Arizona, uber-veteran John McCain, whose American Con- servative Union rating last year was only 63, is fighting for the Senate seat he has held for more than 23 years against Tea Party favorite J.D. Hay- worth. In Indiana, Rep. Mark Souder was pummeled by car-dealer-chal- lenger Bob Thomas for his vote on TARP. In Florida, Marco Rubio has the tea winds at his back for the U.S. Sen- ate nomination, which forced Gov. Charlie Crist to declare himself an independent. Funny about that TARP vote, though, reminiscent as it is of the Iraq war vote that Barack Obama ran against but, not yet having been elect- ed to the U.S. Senate, wasn’t called upon to cast. Would all those running against TARP now have voted against it had they been in Washington with the full weight of economic collapse on their shoulders? It is certainly not objectionable that Americans reshuffle the deck now and then. Entrenched politicos become too beholden over time to special inter- ests, as well as to the very relation- ships that sometimes can be useful to the common good.

But in purging impure Republicans from the ranks, Tea Partyers ultimate- ly may manage to further shrink the GOP by alienating those repelled by purity tests. Nothing dissuades like righteousness. And though Tea Par- tyers pledge allegiance to no party, Re- publicans clearly are more aligned with Tea Party principles than are Democrats. If good-faith, conservative legisla- tors such as Bennett fail to pass mus- ter, who will be brave enough to legislate?

If no one, then what?

kathleenparker@washpost.com

A threat’s new face

T

he Times Square bomb attempt is a snapshot of the future, say U.S. counterterrorism experts: It was a

makeshift plot by a new generation of ter- rorists that was thwarted by a combina- tion of high-tech surveillance and vigi- lant citizens. This is the world we will be living in for some years, and we can only hope that other Americans will be as sensible as New York hot dog vendors. Government officials, for a change, are acting as coolly as Joe Citizen. Rath- er than talk ourselves into a national panic and a “global war against terror- ism,” as happened after Sept. 11, 2001, President Obama took a more meas- ured approach Tuesday: “We will not be terrorized. We will not cower in fear. We will not be intimidat- ed.” New York Mayor Mi- chael Bloomberg also got it right when he insisted: “We will not tolerate any bias or backlash against any Pakistani or Muslim New Yorkers.” Analysts at the National Counterterrorism Center have been warning for sev- eral years that the terrorist threat is changing, in part because of U.S. success in demolishing the senior leadership of al-Qaeda. That organization had a tight command-and- control system and a rigorous process of targeting and operations. The new gener- ation is looser and sloppier; its opera- tions are more decentralized and less deadly. But the terrorists are also harder to find and their plots are easier to replicate. “There’s some real atomization un-

derway,” a U.S. counterterrorism official explained Tuesday. “The old model of centralized command and control no lon- ger tells the whole story. You have fran- chises that are working independent of al-Qaeda in Pakistan, and those franchis- es have shown the ability to conduct highly effective, highly lethal operations in their own countries and regions. In some cases, though, they’ve been a hell of a lot less effective when they go far be- yond their home turf.” The Times Square plot was amateur-

ish: Faisal Shahzad, the alleged bomber, used M-88 firecrackers to try to detonate his hodgepodge of propane tanks, gaso- line and fertilizer. He used cheap-looking alarm clocks as timers. He removed the vehicle identification number of the Nis- san Pathfinder from the dashboard but forgot about the identical number en- graved on the engine. The would-be bomber’s poor tradecraft shouldn’t be reassuring. Jihadists learn from one another’s mistakes. They will

tivist will find Pawlenty the most en- raged choice. His attempts at stump- speech outrage come across like a Baptist trying to swear; the words are right, but the melody is lacking. Which raises the question: In a party of the incensed, can Pawlenty win the nomination without sacrificing his authenticity? Pawlenty responds that niceness is not inconsistent with toughness. He recounts his confrontation with Min- nesota’s public transportation union to limit its overgenerous health ben- efits. “People were standing outside my house holding signs. We shut down the [bus] system for 44 days.” Eventually, like Reagan staring down the air traffic controllers union in 1981, Pawlenty got his concessions. But Pawlenty suffers from another possible handicap in the Republican race — a history of policy innovation. In Minnesota, he instituted a per- formance pay system for teachers and passed a market-based health reform for public employees that reduced health cost inflation. “I can take con- servative ideas and values,” he says, “and make them connect at the gut level with people who are not Repub- licans.” Pawlenty has been one of the Republican Party’s most serious pol- icy modernizers. But given the current Republican mood, modernization and outreach are not much in demand. It says something about our politi- cal moment that Pawlenty’s civility and policy creativity are not advan- tages in a presidential run. But he pos- sesses other possible advantages. His quiet evangelical Christianity could attract interest, particularly if former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee does not run. His governing seri- ousness might impress Republican leaders and conservative intellectuals. And Pawlenty’s fiscal record may fit the moment, particularly if his daugh- ter’s worries about public debt prove widespread. “Change has to come,” he says. “It is a matter of junior high school math. Entitlement spending is going up. Revenues are likely to be flat, even as the economy recovers. The outcome is certain; it is just the timing that is in question. When President [George W.] Bush attempt- ed entitlement reform [in 2005], the country wasn’t ready to take up enti- tlements. Congress wasn’t ready for reform. But they’re warming up. There is a saying: ‘When the pupils are ready, the teacher will appear.’ The pu- pils are getting ready.”

mgerson@globalengage.org

RUTH MARCUS

There are a few obvious answers — and a not-so-obvious one that I was surprised to hear from observers across the political spectrum here. Obviously, the state is reacting — overre-

Arizona’s clean-vote surprise

“W

phoenix

hat’s the matter with Arizona?” is the obvious question about the state’s new immigration law.

acting — in understandable frustration to the federal government’s failure to control il- legal immigration. Overall illegal immigra- tion is down, but stepped-up enforcement in California and Texas has helped shift the problem to Arizona. Obviously, the state is reacting to an eco- nomic crisis that has made the additional pressures of illegal immigration all the more untenable. In the percentage of jobs lost, Ari- zona has suffered more than Michigan, and its budget woes have exceeded those of Cali- fornia.

Obviously, the Republican Party, which controls both houses of the Arizona legisla- ture and the governorship, is becoming more conservative nationwide. In the Grand Can- yon state, the Tea Partyers met the Minutemen.

But Arizona is not as blazingly red as it once was. Arizonans voted for Bill Clinton in 1996 and twice elected Janet Napolitano gov- ernor. Five of its eight U.S. House members are Democrats. Its Hispanic population is 30 percent and growing — suggesting that a wise politician of either party would do well not to alienate this key constituency. Which leads to the less obvious reason

that many people here posed as an explana- tion, at least in part, for the immigration bill: the state’s 1998 “Clean Elections” law. The measure, adopted in response to a corrup- tion scandal, is one of the most far-reaching public financing laws in the nation. Candidates for the legislature can receive public funding if they collect 220 contribu- tions of at least $5 each. This entitles them to more than $14,000 for the primary cam- paign and more than $21,000 for the general election. If a competing candidate chooses not to comply with spending and contribu- tion limits, the publicly funded candidate gets matching funds to stay even. One admirable notion underlying the law was to make campaigns more competitive, leveling the playing field between en- trenched incumbents beholden to moneyed interests and upstart challengers otherwise unable to amass the necessary resources. Trouble is, it worked — perhaps too well. The barriers to entry were extremely low.

analyze every error made in the Times Square operation and every successful technique of U.S. law enforcement and intelligence. The New York Police Department was quick in defusing the explosives-laden vehicle, delivering on its reputation as

KLMNO

R

A21

Terrorism’s new hub in Pakistan

I

by Ahmed Rashid

lahore, pakistan

nformation is still emerging about suspected Times Square bomber Faisal Shahzad, a Pakistani-born

U.S. citizen who apparently spent time here from July until February. Court documents indicate that Shahzad re- ceived bomb-making training in Wa- ziristan, the known haven of numerous groups and extremists. Over the past 18 months, Pakistan’s

REUTERS

One of the alarm clocks found in the bomb in a Nissan Pathfinder in Times Square on Saturday evening.

one of the world’s top counterterrorism forces. But the high-tech end of the intel- ligence community worked pretty well, too, in identifying and arresting Shahzad before he could flee the country. This time, the dots got connected: U.S.

immigration authorities quizzed Shah- zad and obtained detailed information when he returned from his last trip to Pa- kistan; though he used a disposable cell- phone, the FBI was able to link that num- ber with the purchase of the Pathfinder. A pattern analysis of that cellphone’s calls, including ones to Pakistan, apparently led them to Shahzad. At the last minute, he was yanked off a flight to Dubai. That’s the way it’s supposed to work, but the dots won’t always line up so neatly. The dragnet will shift now to Pakistan. Shahzad has told the FBI he was trained in bomb-making in Waziristan. Pakistani intelligence has already arrested some al- leged contacts of Shahzad there, and a U.S. official told me Tuesday that the CIA is “mobilizing every possible contact overseas.” This plot failed, but America won’t al-

ways be so lucky. Al-Qaeda and its spin- offs have been working hard to recruit terrorists who can operate in the United States, and sooner or later, one of them is going to succeed. The test of the country’s resilience isn’t when a terrorist botches the job and people are patting themselves on the back, but when the bomb goes off.

davidignatius@washpost.com

army has conducted major offensives in six of the seven tribal agencies that border Afghanistan. But the seventh agency — North Waziristan — has been left alone. In part, that is because it is home to the Afghan Taliban networks of Jalaluddin Haqqani and Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, who have close relations with the military and the Inter-Services Intelligence directorate (ISI). It has also been left alone for good tactical, if poor strategic, reasons — the army has struck deals with the Pakistani Taliban in North Waziristan not to attack Paki- stani forces. Until recently, these deals have held. But Pakistan’s counterterrorism

strategy, which has been extensively praised by American generals, is now coming apart at the seams — all be- cause of North Waziristan. A sense of despair and helplessness has come to grip the Pakistani public, which faces more suicide bomb attacks each day than even the Afghans next door. Major cities like Peshawar, where more than 100 police officers have been killed this year, are under siege by the Pakistani Taliban. Now it seems Paki- stani militants are also involved in global jihad. North Waziristan is the hub of so

many terrorist groups and so much ter- rorist plotting and planning that nei- ther the CIA nor the ISI seems to have much clue about what is going on there. A year ago, the Pakistan Taliban under Baitullah Mehsud ran a semi- disciplined terrorist movement from the tribal areas that bombed and killed Pakistanis with dastardly methodical- ness. Mehsud was killed last year in a U.S. drone strike. What is left is an- archy, as groups and splinter groups and splinters of splinters operate from North Waziristan with no overall con- trol by anyone, not even Jalaluddin Haqqani. Hakimullah Mehsud, a ruthless lead- er of the Pakistani Taliban pronounced dead by authorities after a U.S. drone strike in January, has turned up alive and well. He was probably hiding out in North Waziristan all these months and nobody knew. In videos released Mon- day, he promises that “the time is very near when our fedayeen will attack the American states in the major cities.”He is ominously flanked by two armed and masked men. Punjabi extremist groups that were

People with little experience in politics at any level ran for the legislature and won. Previously, for better or worse, candidates of both parties were “vetted” by business groups that then proceeded to help them raise money, a process that served to filter out extremes on both sides. And, as it turned out, a law pushed by

“good government” types, primarily Demo- crats, ended up benefiting conservative Re- publicans who quickly figured out that the Clean Elections money could be used to take on Chamber of Commerce-type Republicans. “Clean Elections allowed individuals . . . not to have to compete financially since they didn’t have to build constituencies,” Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon, a Democrat, said in an interview. J.D. Hayworth, the conservative former congressman who is challenging Sen. John McCain in the Republican primary here, told me that “for those of us who derided it as nanny-state government, and properly so,” the “unintended consequence is that it has empowered conservatives.” Retired Supreme Court justice Sandra Day O’Connor is spearheading a reform effort that includes repealing the financing law. But a measure to do so died in the just- concluded legislative session. Meanwhile, another good-government ini-

tiative — to create more politically competi- tive districts by taking the task of drawing them away from the legislature and giving it to a bipartisan commission — also did not work as intended. Under a constitutional amendment adopted by voters in 2000, Ari- zona became the first state to require that competitiveness be considered in drawing legislative lines. Great idea. But competitiveness was just one among many factors to be considered, and only four of 30 districts ended up com- petitive. The Arizona Supreme Court last year rejected a challenge by Hispanic Demo- cratic lawmakers seeking to have the lines redrawn to require additional swing dis- tricts.

Safe seats plus the Clean Elections fund- ing equaled more extreme candidates — and a legislature where moderate Republicans are nearly extinct. I am a firm supporter, in theory, of public

financing and, even more, of nonpartisan re- districting. But the Arizona experience offers a sobering lesson to reformers. It’s not neces- sarily to be careful what you wish for. But craft your wish with precision, or you may regret making it.

marcusr@washpost.com

once trained by the military to fight In- dian forces in Kashmir have splintered from their mother groups and operate out of North Waziristan in alliance with the Pashtun Pakistani Taliban and al- Qaeda. Inexplicably, one of these Pun- jabi groups last week executed Khalid Khawaja, a former ISI officer known for his sympathy for al-Qaeda and the Tali- ban. Who killed Khawaja and why is still a huge mystery. Was it a case of ter- ror eating its own?

Other militant groups operating out

of North Waziristan include vehement- ly anti-Shiite groups, several Central Asian and Chechen groups, and, by some accounts, Lashkar-e-Taiba, blamed for the deadly 2008 attack in Mumbai. Training is available for Paki- stanis and foreigners who come and go at will. Five young Americans are on trial in Pakistan for trying to reach North Waziristan. Pakistan’s army says it cannot open another front in North Waziristan be- cause it is overstretched and is focusing on its offensives in other agencies. Yet the army just held exercises with 50,000 troops on the Indian border to signal to the international community that it still considers India its main enemy. In the tribal agencies, the army is also dealing with a quarter-million in- ternal refugees and is engaged in hu- manitarian relief, reconstruction and the maintenance of supply lines that are regularly ambushed by militants. The tragedy is that the civilian govern- ment hasn’t offered to take over these tasks — which it should — and the army isn’t encouraging it to do so. Counter- terrorism without a civilian “hold and build” component is meaningless. What is happening in North Waziri- stan is having a global impact. Some- thing has to be done about a region that has become an even greater terrorist hub than Afghanistan was before 2001. Pakistan’s leaders — both civil and mili- tary — should take the lead in finding solutions to the problem, as the inter- national community helps Islamabad implement a policy that will clear out this lethal terrorism central.

Ahmed Rashid, a Pakistani journalist and a fellow at the Pacific Council on International Policy, is most recently the author of "Descent Into Chaos: The U.S. and the Disaster in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Central Asia." Page 1  |  Page 2  |  Page 3  |  Page 4  |  Page 5  |  Page 6  |  Page 7  |  Page 8  |  Page 9  |  Page 10  |  Page 11  |  Page 12  |  Page 13  |  Page 14  |  Page 15  |  Page 16  |  Page 17  |  Page 18  |  Page 19  |  Page 20  |  Page 21  |  Page 22  |  Page 23  |  Page 24  |  Page 25  |  Page 26  |  Page 27  |  Page 28  |  Page 29  |  Page 30  |  Page 31  |  Page 32  |  Page 33  |  Page 34  |  Page 35  |  Page 36  |  Page 37  |  Page 38  |  Page 39  |  Page 40  |  Page 41  |  Page 42  |  Page 43  |  Page 44  |  Page 45  |  Page 46  |  Page 47  |  Page 48  |  Page 49  |  Page 50  |  Page 51  |  Page 52  |  Page 53  |  Page 54  |  Page 55  |  Page 56  |  Page 57  |  Page 58