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Here, the word randomness is what brings statis-
tics and statisticians into the picture. Statistics,
in a nutshell, is a discipline that studies the
best ways of dealing with randomness, or
more precisely and broadly, variation. As
human beings, we tend to love informa-
tion, but we hate uncertainty—espe-
cially when we need to make decisions.
Information and uncertainty, however,
are actually two sides of the same coin. If
I ask you to go to the airport to pick up
a student you have never met, my descrip-
tion of her is information only because there
are variations; if everyone at the airport looks
identical, my description has no value. On the other
hand, the same variation causes uncertainty. If all
I tell you is to pick up a Chinese female student
Xiao-Li Meng and
his “happy team” on
by the name of Xiao-Li (meaning “little beauty”
the opening day of
in Chinese, not “plough at dawn”
Stat 105. From left:
as my name means), then my description
(which don’t have to be numerical) are telling us
Cassandra Wolos, Kari
is not informative enough because it still allows too
about issues from personal health to the global eco-
Lock, Xiao-Li Meng,
many variations. There may be a substantial number
nomic crisis. There is so much variation in almost
yves Chretien, and
of individuals at the airport who look like a Chinese
everything we want to know or study, one has to
Paul Edlefsen.
female student. You then need to do something
wonder what constitutes real information and what
creative to pick up the right one, such as making a
Photo by Rose Lincoln/
is just noise. Harvard news Office
name sign.
Mr. Skerry’s reasoning is surely ridiculous, but
Then again, the name sign is useful for her to
how many of us have realized that the many small
identify you as the one picking her up only because
probabilities reported in the media and even scien-
there is variation among names. Indeed, if it hap-
tific publications—such as probabilities of DNA
pens that there are two Xiao-Li name signs outside
evidence—were based on exactly the same ridicu-
the terminal, she will need to do something creative
lous reasoning, that is multiplying probabilities
to find you. This is, of course, trivial, and any of us
inappropriately?
would recognize and deal with the situation upon
encountering it. But, we may or may not recognize
AP Statistics Was the Most Boring
the deeper principle behind it: Information is there
Course I Took in High School
for the same reason uncertainty is there.
While we are at the airport, let me throw in this
As a statistics professor, I hear this or a close varia-
almost well-known joke. Mr. Skerry needs to take
tion almost every time I tell someone I teach statis-
a flight, but he is terrified by the possibility—how-
tics. And for nearly every one of you (i.e., under-
ever smallt— hat someone will bring a bomb onto
graduates) I have spoken with, the number one
his plane. So, he decides to pack a bomb himself, as
reason you did not consider majoring in statistics is
he reasons that the chance two individuals bringing
because the AP Statistics you took convinced you
bombs onto the same plane is much smaller than
that statistics is the most boring subject. We statis-
that of one individual bringing on a bomb.
ticians, of course, are to be blamed for this unfor-
You, of course, are chuckling at this. However,
tunate situation. Statistics is an urgently demand-
which probabilistic/statistical principle is he trying
ed, but vastly under-appreciated, field—urgently
to use, or rather violate? Can you easily explain to
demanded for reasons discussed above and vastly
your fellow students why Mr. Skerry’s argument
under-appreciated because too few statisticians,
is ridiculous? If you cannot, then let’s label this
relatively speaking, have effectively conveyed the
Puzzle Two.
excitement of statistics as a way of scientific think-
I hope the discussion above has helped you see
ing for whatever you do, instead of a collection of
more clearly, and fundamentally, why Google, Wall
tools you may or may not need one day.
Street, and many other entities are increasingly inter-
At Harvard, we are fortunate to have several first-
ested in hiring statisticians. We are now squarely in
class statistical educators teaching introductory statis-
the information age, with almost everything digi-
tics courses. For example, my colleague Ken Stanley,
tized. Each of us is trying to see what all the data
who teaches Introduction to Quantitative Methods
SEPTEMbER 2009 AMSTAT NEwS 43
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