STATISTICIANS IN HISTORY
analysis. This approach worked
well; a large number of scholars
responded and, with Willcox’s
The Older, Shorter Term
participation and supervision,
Walter Willcox, especially in his research into the history
the bureau was able to publish
of statistics and statisticians, preferred the older, shorter
a monumental work in 1906, term “statist” to the modern term “statistician.” In the
titled Supplementary Analysis
1947 article “Lemuel Shattuck, Statist,” published in The
and Derivative Tables, which
American Statistician, Willcox wrote, “The most influential
was a volume of more than
English and American workers in our field, William Farr
1,100 census-size pages. Thus,
and Lemuel Shattuck, together with perhaps the most
many subjects of demographic
influential American writer of prose and verse, Shattuck’s
importance were interpreted for
the first time.
fellow townsman and friend
Willcox’s interest in vital
Waldo Emerson, chose the older
statistics never flagged. Years
and shorter word, statist, and
later, when civil registration had
eschewed the modern tongue-
improved considerably, he was twisting statistician. Should not a
invited by the bureau to prepare a
lesser laborer in the same vineyard
detailed analysis of vital statistics.
then revive their practice? Because
This appeared as the Introduction
I think we should, my title [of this
to the Vital Statistics of the United
article] is ‘Lemuel Shattuck, Statist.’”
States, 1900 to 1930.
Since the census of 1900,
Willcox was concerned with
as follows: “A transfer of a seat
the problem of the apportion-
from one state to another should
ment of seats in the House
Lemuel Shattuck, one of the ASA’s
be made if, and only if, the per-
of Representatives. He first
founding fathers
centage difference between the
encountered this problem at the
congressional districts in the two
U.S. Census Bureau, whose task
states would be reduced by the
Willcox’s interests and activi-
it is to prepare the apportion-
transfer.” The test of major frac-
ties were eclectic. He examined
ment tables. In June of 1959,
tions provides that no state with
the possibility of constructing
he appeared before a subcom-
a major fraction (one that reaches
statistical tests of economic and
mittee of the Committee of
0.500) shall go unrewarded and
social progress and somewhat
the Judiciary of the House of
none with a minor fraction shall
concluded that “the statistical
Representatives to urge upon
be rewarded. The computations
method is unable to tell whether
Congress an apportionment
are carried out by a system of
the population of the United
based on the method of major
sliding divisors until a point is
States is nearer to the economic
fractions, a method once used
reached where the terms of the
optimum than it was a generation
by Congress but subsequently
test are met. But as Willcox him-
ago.” This is a subject with which
replaced by that of equal propor-
self said, “The results are simple,
he expressed concern. In his
tions. Other methods considered
but the method itself is somewhat
broadcast on the “This I Believe”
workable include the method of
difficult to explain.”
program, he said “I believe that
smallest divisors, the method
As more and more scholars
human freedom to experiment
of the harmonic mean, and the
were drawn into the discus-
and initiate is the most potent
method of greatest divisors.
sion, the proponents of the
of all the forces working for the
The intricacies of this problem
two methods became known
progress of mankind.”
are somewhat elusive. They led,
as the “Cornell school” and the
Willcox served as president of
during the 1920s and later, to a
“Harvard school.” The range of
the ASA in 1912 and was elect-
prolonged discussion and public
discussion included mathemati-
ed a Fellow in 1917. In 1892,
debate between Willcox, who
cal aspects, the question of which
the year he became a mem-
espoused the method of major
method favored small states at the
ber of ASA, he also joined the
fractions, and E.V. Huntington,
expense of large (or vice versa),
American Economic Association
professor of mathematics at
political and constitutional inter-
and served as secretary from
Harvard who supported the
pretations, and which method
1896–1899 and as president in
method of equal proportions.
was easier for the general public
1915. He was a Fellow of the
The test of the latter method
and some members of Congress
Royal Statistical Society and an
was described by Huntington
to understand.
honorary member of statistical
societies in several countries. n
SEPTEMbER 2009 AMSTAT NEwS 25
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