NEWS UPDATE ENERGY DEMAND ANALYSIS In Brief


● Schneider Electric has opened a £42 million, 16,500m2 smart plant in Scarborough, North Yorkshire, to produce electrical equipment for the UK energy sector, with full commissioning due by year end. This is expected to enable faster delivery of bespoke solutions to UK customers and reduce supply chain risks and carbon emissions.


● A €320 million investment has upgraded and expanded Panasonic’s giga factory in Pilsen, Czech Republic, increasing production capacity by 250% to 140,000m². The site will produce up to 1.4 million heat pump units per year for Europe. Production and R&D have been consolidated locally to enhance supply chain resilience and meet growing regional demand for energy-efficient heating and cooling solutions.


● The testing, inspection, and certification specialist Bureau Veritas has strengthened its UK presence with the opening of a Teesside project office to support local content and services for the Net Zero Teesside Power (NZT) and Northern Endurance Partnership (NEP) projects, providing independent quality, inspection, and surveillance services for the UK’s first decarbonised industrial cluster.


● Statera Energy has energised Thurrock Storage, the UK’s largest battery energy storage system, with 300 MW/600 MWh capacity, capable of powering up to 680,000 homes. Located near London, the site delivers rapid-response electricity to the grid, enhancing energy security, stability and supporting the region’s clean energy transition.


● Planning approval has been granted to Apatura for a 24 MW/48 MWh battery energy storage system near Barrhead, southwest of Glasgow. The nine- acre site will store and discharge renewable energy to the grid, include 12 battery units and four PCS units, and operate for 40 years with restoration planned thereafter.


● Aira has secured €150 million in equity financing from existing investors to accelerate the electrification of residential heating across Europe. Since June 2023, the company has expanded into Germany, Italy, and the UK, employing 1,200 staff, opening 18 hubs and four training academies, and offering end-to-end heat pump solutions to households.


08


UK energy use has fallen more than expected, says report


The UK has cut its energy use far more than expected two decades ago, but has squandered opportunities to act on this progress, according to new research. The report, published by the Tyndall


Centre for Climate Change Research at The University of Manchester, Decarbonising the UK Revisited, reviews 20 years of energy system scenarios and their impact on policy. Launched at the Centre’s 25th


anniversary conference, the study finds that only one of its early scenarios – the ‘Red’ pathway – came close to matching the UK’s actual energy demand in 2022. The report’s authors say this energy


demand mismatch reveals that early scenarios often focused on untested technologies while overlooking practical and proven ways to reduce energy use, such as improving public transport, insulating homes and reducing air travel. They identify that these choices


often went on to influence policy debates, with optimism about new technologies often overshadowing everyday solutions, potentially limiting the scope of decarbonisation that was deemed possible by policy makers and researchers. By comparing the 2005 scenarios of future energy with the energy changes


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that have happened, the authors reveal where foresight was limited, where assumptions proved over-ambitious, and where genuine transformation was underestimated. Dr Gaurav Gharde, lead author,


says: “Our research underscores how energy scenarios underestimated the potential of the less exciting but proven solutions – things like energy efficiency, public transport, home insulation – while being too optimistic about how quickly seemingly promising technologies like fossil fuel with carbon capture and storage would actually materialise at scale.” The researchers warn that to hit


climate targets, future scenarios must widen the focus – prioritising efficiency, lifestyle changes and fairness alongside new technologies – to give policy makers a broader, more realistic set of options.


Committee critical of fuel poverty strategy On 22nd August, the government placed on its website the latest policy paper from the Committee on Fuel Poverty. Curiously, there was no accompanying press release or public statement whatsoever issued, and no circulation of the publication to almost all those who usually interact with the official advisory committee on fuel poverty.


This unusual reticence may well


be because the Committee’s policy paper emphasises some forceful “key messages” which are currently some way from being government policy. In particular, the paper overtly stresses that the legal requirement upon government is not just to ameliorate, but to eliminate, fuel poverty. It is extremely critical of the


convoluted definition adopted in England (but in none of the devolved


nations) to identify the actual numbers deemed to qualify as being in fuel poverty. The concern is this may well be massaging the actual numbers downwards, as well as accentuating the elderly rather than working families, especially those headed by single parents. The policy paper includes ten pithy Key Messages aimed at government.


There is overt concern that undue attention is being paid to switching fuel supply, rather than the physical state of the building. The paper thumps home the theme that “warm homes are central to ending fuel poverty”, emphasising that above all, “energy efficiency programmes must prioritise ‘invest to save- fabric first’ for fuel poor households “. The final section concludes with a warning about the prioritisation of installing heat pumps to the exclusion of alternative measures which would reduce running costs. The government is committed


to producing an updated fuel poverty strategy later this year, which is anticipated to be published simultaneously with the long-delayed Warm Homes Plan, due on 22nd October.


Big six dominating the UK domestic energy market


The domestic energy market share held by small and medium- sized suppliers in Great Britain has fallen to a new low of 8.6%. Cornwall Insight’s latest Domestic Market Share Survey says this marks a drop from 8.9% at the start of 2025. It is a dramatic fall from the 31% share held before the energy crisis began. Just as in 2010, the country now has just six large energy


providers – British Gas, E.ON Next, EDF, Octopus Energy, OVO and Scottish Power – controlling 91.3% of the domestic energy market. Four of these companies were also dominant 15 years ago. In the interim, Octopus and OVO have replaced SSE and RWE.


This growing dominance reflects continued market


consolidation and the effects of the energy price crisis of 2023, which saw 26 suppliers, nearly all in the small and medium category, exit the market. Many smaller suppliers were unable to weather the severe wholesale price volatility during the crisis, unlike their larger counterparts with more substantial capital reserves.


Although market conditions have improved since the peak of the crisis, smaller suppliers still face tight margins. High wholesale costs remain a challenge, and new regulatory responsibilities from Ofgem are adding further strain, especially


for firms without dedicated compliance teams. New supplier entries into the market have also slowed. Since 2021, only three suppliers have joined the domestic market, compared with 17 new entrants in 2017. Matthew Smith, analyst at Cornwall Insight, says: “We are


continuing to see the effects of the energy crisis play out in the domestic market. The numbers show a continued shift away from a highly competitive, fragmented supplier base towards a more consolidated market dominated by the biggest players.”


EIBI | SEPTEMBER 2025


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