KBR was recently awarded the FEED contract for EcoLog


Terminal Amsterdam, the world's first commercial- scale liquid hydrogen


import and liquid CO2 export facility, expected to be operational by the end of 2030


HYDROGEN


long-term customer demand. Operationally, many existing facilities were never


designed for these kinds of retrofits. Steam balances, electrical systems, utilities infrastructure and maintenance strategies can all become limiting factors once major modifications begin. Ammonia and fertiliser plants also cannot simply stop operating for extended periods while new systems are installed. Shutdown sequencing, production losses and restart risks all carry direct commercial implications that need to be understood much earlier in development.


A BRIGHT FUTURE FOR PLANT


MODERNISATION


Modernising hydrogen and fertiliser assets starts


long before engineering begins. Nenad Zecevic, head of Hydrogen & Derivatives, KBR, comments


F


ertiliser and hydrogen producers are under pressure to modernise plants that were


often built decades ago, while preparing for a market that is changing more quickly than many expected. Low carbon ammonia, hydrogen integration and carbon capture continue to attract investment, but moving projects from concept into operations is becoming harder as policy tightens and buyers remain cautious about green premiums. Many of these projects run into problems long


before construction starts. In many cases, owners move quickly into engineering studies and equipment selection before understanding whether the project can realistically be financed, permitted and delivered without major disruption. What is typically missing in this stage is a structured, stage-gated development pathway that connects opportunity screening, pre- feasibility, full feasibility and investment decision into a single bankable narrative. Most ammonia and fertiliser plants were not designed around large-scale hydrogen integration, carbon capture or electrification. Over time, they have become interconnected systems where utilities, process units and export infrastructure all depend on one another. A modification in one area can quickly create knock-on effects elsewhere across the site. Financing conditions are also different from


what they were a few years ago. Investors and lenders are looking much more closely at commodity price exposure, carbon costs and policy before committing. A technically viable retrofit no longer guarantees an investable project.


www.essmag.co.uk


ENGINEERING IS NOT THE SAME AS BANKABILITY Under pressure to modernise, owners will often commission what is described as a feasibility study, but in practice the work becomes focused on process design, equipment layouts and technical scope definition. These studies can create internal confidence because visible progress is being made. The problem is that engineering work on its own does not answer the more difficult commercial questions. It does not prove whether there will still be a viable premium market for low carbon ammonia, whether environmental approvals can be secured within the required timeframe, or what prolonged shutdowns and utility integration issues could do to project economics. Without this feasibility step, projects often progress as technically coherent concepts but fail once placed under investor, regulatory and market conditions. Those problems often emerge later, once lenders,


regulators or investors begin testing the assumptions behind the development. A longer shutdown can affect annual production, late emissions requirements can alter CAPEX, and assumptions around low carbon product pricing may fail under closer market scrutiny.


WHY MODERNISATION HAS BECOME HARDER Historically, many plant upgrades were relatively straightforward. The operator would replace equipment, work to improve efficiency and expand production capacity over time. However, today’s projects are different. Producers are trying to reduce carbon intensity while maintaining reliability, output and competitiveness. Hydrogen integration illustrates the problem well.


While low-carbon hydrogen and ammonia continue to attract investment globally, the commercial conditions around those projects vary considerably between regions. Some markets benefit from strong policy support or export demand. Others are still struggling with uncertain economics, infrastructure limitations and questions around


WHAT LENDERS AND REGULATORS ACTUALLY LOOK FOR The projects most likely to secure financing are usually the ones that spend the longest testing assumptions before committing capital. Investors increasingly expect market analysis, permitting strategy, engineering scope and financial modelling to be developed together rather than separately. Lenders want to understand whether long-term demand genuinely exists, how exposed the economics are to commodity price volatility and whether the permitting pathway is credible. In practice, this means treating feasibility not as a technical pre-step, but as an integrated commercial, operational and financial discipline. Environmental studies are important for the same reason. Emissions controls, wastewater treatment requirements and carbon reporting obligations can all alter schedules and costs. Projects rarely fail because the process technology itself was misunderstood. More often, difficulties emerge because the wider operational and commercial implications were never fully tested before engineering decisions were made.


STARTING WITH THE BUSINESS CASE Rather than moving directly into FEED, the strongest projects spend more time validating market demand, understanding regulatory exposure and testing different technical pathways before major engineering work begins. This often involves comparing multiple technical pathways and phasing strategies before committing to a fixed design, preserving flexibility as market and policy conditions evolve. That does not necessarily mean slowing


projects down. In some cases, phased upgrades or smaller pilot developments allow operators to reduce risk while still creating operational and commercial value early. Stress testing the financial model also matters.


Projects need to remain resilient under different operating scenarios, including changing energy prices, downtime requirements and future policy changes. Hydrogen and fertiliser modernisation will


remain important as producers respond to ageing infrastructure and growing emissions pressure. But engineering alone is no longer enough. The projects most likely to progress are those that treat feasibility as a commercial and operational discipline from the beginning, not simply a technical exercise before construction.


KBR www.kbr.com/en


ENERGY & SUSTAINABILITY SOLUTIONS - Summer 2026 35


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