ROBOTICS
arms on mobile platforms. Today, these mainly pick box-shaped items in known environments. However, progress will bring these technologies to more varied items. It will also allow better integration of the robotic arm with the mobile platform.
rms. Howe so all
In the short term, more learning is required. However, recent advances on the algorithm side suggest that progress will be rapid although the algorithms will need to achieve not just high rates but also high-speed to drive down the ROI on these tools. In the very long term though, IDTechEx forecast that 36 per cent and 38 per cent of AMRs in warehouses sold in 2040 will be able to pick regular – as well as irregular-shaped items, respectively. This points towards a major long-term technology transformation, requiring automation beyond just autonomy of movement. IDTechEx Analysts consider this a major technology development opportunity.
ore l sugg o ach thes ent a gular majo st au gy de
AUTONOMOUS FORKLIFTS AND OTHER INDUSTRIAL VEHICLES Autonomous forklifts and tugs are emerging onto the market. The navigation technology has progressed significantly. Naturally, the cost of autonomous forklifts is higher, but the claimed ROI by many suppliers is within 12-18 months. The cost includes the installation and maintenance as well as the cost of the autonomous sensor suite, traction control and drivers, and the software, which can be amortized over a growing deployed fleet. Overall, price parity on an annual operational cost basis is nearly at hand in some high wage territories.
LIFTS and t essed the c udes us se e am erati
The unit sales here can reach 1.8k in 2020, which seems a high number can r
but still small relative to the addressable market. Over the past 1.5 years, however, this market has also entered the early stages of its growth phase. Analysis and interviews conducted by IDTechEx suggest that inflection point is likely to be reached around 2025-2027. After this point, they project the sales to grow, already exceeding 100k units by 2030. Note that IDTechEx generally develops 20-year forecasts for autonomous mobility as the technology will inevitably take time to be rolled out.
e to th has
ws co roun eding casts o be r
LONG-HAUL TRUCK DELIVERY
Long-haul trucks are a prime target for autonomous mobility. This is because autonomous mobility can address many industry pain-points and because there is a clear commercial case, unlike passenger vehicles. The first pain point is that there is a shortage of drivers, which could increase to 160k per 2028 in the USA. The second pain point is the operating cost, this is because wages are high, and likely to go up given that demand outstrips supply. Safety requirements limit the number of uninterrupted hours a driver can spend on the road, limiting the productivity of the asset. Finally, the long stretches of highway lend themselves well to autonomous mobility, unlike the chaotic conditions in dense urban driving. he de
UCK a pri
can a ercia shor secon kely
e num he pr selve ban
2020; this is still a small number but shows the direction of travel. The report ment
finds that the deployment of level-4 autonomous trucks will grow slowly until nt the
estimate suggests that the market could reach 550k level-4 units/year by sugg
2030. Their roadmap suggests that level-5 will remain virtually non-existent nd wi
forecasts, segmented by autonomy level, please visit
www.IDTechEx.com/ Mobile.
LAST-MILE DELIVERY VANS AND SIDE-WALK ROBOTS
This is an interesting technological frontier. The cost of last-mile delivery is often 50 per cent of the total cost. As such, there is a strong commercial incentive to automate this step to boost productivity. There are two approaches: on-road last-mile delivery vans or pods and side-walk robotic.
Y VA echn
The on-road vans and pods share many technological challenges with other on-road autonomous vehicles. The difference however, is that they can operate in limited well-mapped and known-environments and that they can
the t this very nd po mou l-ma
FACTORY&HANDLINGSOLUTIONS 39
for another decade and will only grow beyond 2030. To see the full 2020-2040 by a
It is plausible that the deployed trucks could exceed 1300 units by the end of all n
2025, after which point the growth has the potential to rise rapidly. IDTechEx’s at the
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28 |
Page 29 |
Page 30 |
Page 31 |
Page 32 |
Page 33 |
Page 34 |
Page 35 |
Page 36 |
Page 37 |
Page 38 |
Page 39 |
Page 40 |
Page 41 |
Page 42 |
Page 43 |
Page 44 |
Page 45 |
Page 46 |
Page 47 |
Page 48 |
Page 49 |
Page 50 |
Page 51 |
Page 52 |
Page 53 |
Page 54
