Front End | Electronic Components Supply Network
the longer-term availability of some specialty metals and gases are likely to be affected - but the trade war between the US and China is having an immediate and ongoing impact on the availability of goods and therefore on sales revenues.
No organisation in the electronic components supply network, not even the largest, can influence global political tensions or the direction of macro-economic conditions, but they can adapt their business strategies accordingly, speedily reacting to changes as they happen and where possible, exploiting them to their commercial advantage.
Signals of change
The global electronics market over the past 60 years has been driven primarily by advances in semiconductor technology and semiconductors remains the largest electronic components market with sales revenues in 2022 forecast to hit $676bn and $1Tn by the end of the decade. That said, a quick review of the graphic “Figure E3 – Worldwide IC Annual Growth Rate Trend by Sector” clearly demonstrates that the growth rate for all semiconductor products is slowing: Memory Products, normally a leading indicator of change went negative in June ’22
but Microprocessors led the growth decline by going negative in the second month of the year. Logic and Analogue products are also on a downward trajectory but are lagging the other sectors probably because of their wider applications and customer base. These numbers signal that growth across the entire technology manufacturing sector is going to significantly slow into 2023 but the questions in the minds of many industry leaders is “how far?” and “how will my customers and therefore my organisation be affected?”.
UK / Ireland electronic components market forecast – 2023
Across the UK & Ireland electronic components supply network ecsn member companies are engaging with their suppliers and their customers, along with their internal and external teams and peer groups, to arrive at an industry consensus Forecast for 2023. This is always a challenge and, given the current and ongoing levels of disruption in the global economy, is going to be particularly difficult this year. However, we will arrive at an industry forecast for 2023 which, in the New Year, we’ll share with readers of CIE to hopefully assist with their organisations’ planning.
Concluding thoughts
In the current uncertain times organisations that make abrupt changes in their purchasing procedures risk exposing themselves and their network partners to increased supply risks. I suggest that the appropriate customer response to improving supply of electronic components is to gently “roll back on the throttle” and in collaboration with their supply network partners allow their order books to come back into balance in a controlled way. In the interim we continue our “Dancing Between the Raindrops” in the hope that the looming
“storm” will be short and not too damaging. For information
Adam Fletcher is chairman of the Electronic Components Supply Network (ecsn), a business association established in 1970 that today offers support to all organisations with an interest in electronic components throughout their entire lifecycle. He is also chairman of the International Distribution of Electronics Association (IDEA), an association of individual country electronic components associations whose objective is to arrive at and share best industry practice.
“…Promoting Positive Collaboration Throughout the Electronic Components Supply Network to Benefit Members and the Economy…”
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www.cieonline.co.uk
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www.techsil.co.uk Components in Electronics November 2022 13
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