Mobile Technology
What’s next in 5G and telecommunications, network security, and sustainability
Steve Douglas, head of 5G strategy, Spirent; Chris Purdy, head of service assurance strategy, Spirent; and Marc Cohn, principal technology strategist, Spirent, present their predictions for the year ahead
5G/telecommunications
● Diving into densification: Communication service providers (CSPs) will continue expanding 5G mid-band macro coverage this year, but some leading operators will also begin focusing on densification, including using small cells and massive MIMO arrays.
● Standalone (SA) 5G Core adoption will continue—steadily: CSPs will gradually ramp up adoption of 5G SA this year, but will continue to face significant headwinds. Challenges include the complexity of multi- vendor and cloud-native 5G SA environments, ongoing performance issues, increased security risks and migration trade-offs to guarantee performance and align with spectrum portfolios.
● Most operators will continue to prioritize their own Telco Clouds for 5G Core… at least for now: To support next-generation network capabilities, CSPs need to run 5G Core in virtualized cloud environments. A handful of true greenfield operators have chosen to outsource this requirement to public cloud providers, and others may eventually follow. Indeed, 2023 may well be the year that many CSPs discover just how hard it is to build and operate these environments, and start turning to hyperscalers for help. For now, however, most CSPs will continue working with their vendors to try to build and run their own Telco Clouds.
● Public cloud partnerships will grow for certain key workloads: While most operators continue looking inwards for 5G Core cloud capabilities, many will expand their partnerships with hyperscalers to support specific cloud workloads in 2023. Look for growth in three key areas. First, edge services
42 February 2023
like Multi-Access Edge Computing (MEC), where operators believe public cloud can help them start tapping into the market for enterprise edge services more quickly, with much lower CapEx than building out their own edge clouds. This year will also see CSPs increasingly host Containerized Network Functions (CNFs) in public cloud, especially for disaggregated RAN NFs. CSPs will also expand their use of public cloud for internal IT workloads such as Operational and Business Support Systems (OSS/BSS).
● CSPs will heighten their focus on monetizing 5G investments: By end of 2022, most CSPs had built out 5G networks enough to provide decent coverage for most users. As new 5G subscriptions have mostly just displaced 4G/LTE, however, most
Components in Electronics
CSPs’ Average Revenue per User (ARPU) has remained largely flat. This year, especially in more mature markets, expect CSPs to shift their focus towards aggressively pursuing new revenues. Look for major pushes in areas like gaming, Voice over New Radio (VoNR) and Fixed Wireless Access as a broadband alternative, especially for connecting rural communities. We will also see early efforts in enterprise edge offerings in areas like Ultra High Definition (UHD) Video monitoring combined with Artificial Intelligence (AI). And expect early forays into Metaverse related offerings combining Virtual Reality (VR), Gaming, VoNR and Collaboration services.
● Private cellular networks will continue to grow—but not necessarily on 5G: Last year saw many trials and early deployments
of private cellular networks, and enterprise adoption will grow in 2023. Many initial deployments, however, will continue using primarily 4G/LTE technology, with 5G Non- standalone (NSA) networks employed only for select use cases that require additional radio capabilities, such as faster 5G speeds. 5G Stand Alone (SA) implementations will begin to slowly appear as market availability and operating confidence with delivery partners grows.
● Private 5G for industry kicks off this year: CSPs and their customers have long anticipated the value that 5G can provide for industrial applications. 5G’s lower latencies, enhanced power efficiency, Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) radio features, and other capabilities can enable
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