Market Insight
However, crucially, this growth is projected to build from a stabilised base rather than a typical rebound cycle, with demand supported by structurally persistent applications such as AI, high-performance computing (HPC), automotive ADAS, communications infrastructure, robotics, and continued industrial digitalisation.
Conclusion
While risks remain in specific component categories, the late-2025 data points toward fewer systemic disruptions and a growing emphasis on targeted investment, capacity planning, and sourcing discipline. Rather than broad-based expansion, the signals point to an industry increasingly shaped by selective decisions and application-specific demand, where resilience is built through alignment rather than scale alone.
If 2025 was the year in which the industry reset its assumptions around demand, supply, and risk, then 2026 is shaping up to be the year those assumptions are tested. Looking forward, Avnet Silica will continue to provide not just the technical solutions the market needs, but also the granular, data-driven perspective through initiatives like Trendliner that help those within the industry to navigate ever-evolving conditions.
Figure 2 - An overview of memory lead times and prices for Q4 2025 (excludes DRAM, flash, MPU compute, GPU, AI processors).
meaningful signals are no longer found in volumes or lead times alone, but in intent, with investment projections pointing to a shift in behaviour after an extended period of defensive planning. This cautious optimism is underpinned by broader economic conditions, including projections that U.S. interest rates will normalise around 2.75 to 3.25% and global GDP growth is expected at approximately 2.7% in 2026, with major forecasters ranging from 2.4 to 3.1% (United Nations, World Bank, IMF)7
.
While this does not point to a sharp rebound, it suggests that organisations are beginning to lengthen planning horizons, committing capital selectively as confidence improves around demand visibility and supply alignment. In this context, Q4 functions less as a critical pivot point and more as confirmation that the recalibration seen through 2025 may be starting to translate into forward planning.
It is against this backdrop that the outlook for 2026 should be considered. Avnet Silica’s Q4 Trendliner forecasts indicate that the global semiconductor market is expected to reach $390 billion in 2026, representing year- on-year growth of 4.8%8
. Growth is expected
to vary by region, with EMEA projected to expand 6.1%, Asia 5.1%, the Americas 3.9%, and Japan 1.9%9
.
www.cieonline.co.uk https://my.avnet.com/silica/
Figure 3 - Q4 global semiconductor outlook by region, (excludes DRAM, flash, MPU compute, GPU, AI processors)
References: 1
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Avnet Silica Trendliner Q1 Report (Feb), Page 3, “Global Semi Outlook by Region” chart:
https://my.avnet.com/silica/resources/trendliner/ Avnet Silica Trendliner Q3 Report (Jul), Page 3, “Global Semi Outlook by Region” chart Avnet Silica Trendliner Q4 Report (Nov), Page 3, “Global Semi Outlook by Region” chart Avnet Silica Trendliner Q1 Report (Feb), Page 5, “Economic Summary for Europe”
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/86c03abfcd6d44a2a7e611d1472c044f Avnet Silica Trendliner Q4 Report (Nov), Page 10, “Analog” table Avnet Silica Trendliner Q4 Report (Nov), Page 4, “2026 Global Outlook” Avnet Silica Trendliner Q1 Report (Feb), Page 4, “2026 Global Outlook” Avnet Silica Trendliner Q1 Report (Feb), Page 4, “2026 Global Outlook”
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