THE ISSUES Art sales


HAMMERING TAKING A


A $10 billion slump in the global art market threatens to hit the major auction houses where it hurts Words RORY ROSS Illustration HOWARD MWILLIAM


as by flesh. Stark and hollow-eyed, it distils the human face into a mask-like form. Oſten associated with Giacometti’s brother Diego, the work transcends portraiture. It becomes a symbol of introspection, its pit- ted texture quietly speaking to time, vulner- ability and endurance. When it went up for auction in New York


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in May, Grande tête mince had an estimate of $70 million. But then something astonishing happened. This quality work from one of the most vaunted artists in human history failed to attract a single bid. If you were there, in Sotheby’s saleroom on York Ave- nue, you might have almost felt the shock- waves rippling across the art world. When a major work fails, it plunges demand for oth- er pieces – not only those by the same artist, but also trophy pieces from other names in the canon – the Warhols, Picassos and Roth- kos too. If this didn’t sell at that price, what will? The unsold bust became an avatar of what some see as a crater in the market for ultra-high-value art. The failure came against a gloomy back- drop. According to the 2025 Art Basel/UBS


haunting bronze bust, elongat- ed, flattened and grooved, Alberto Giacometti’s Grande tête mince (1954) seems shaped as much by memory and erosion


Art Market Report – held in oracular esteem – global sales fell by 12 per cent in 2024 to $57.5 billion (see chart overleaf). That’s the second largest drop in 15 years, leaving total sales down more than $10 billion on 2022. According to Arun Kakar of online sales


platform Artsy, any downturn is in danger of becoming a spiral. Today’s cool market con- ditions are ‘leading to a lack of consign- ments [collectors putting their works up for sale], creating a nasty cycle. People are less likely to consign because they view a lack of demand, which in itself affects demand. There’s also the contextual issues of tariffs, stock market trickiness and so on. Auctions are driven by sentiment and emotion, so the houses are more susceptible to changes in mood music than large businesses in other industries.’ Look beyond the big-ticket items, howev-


er, and perhaps it’s not so bleak. The actual number of transactions rose by 3 per cent to 40.5 million last year, suggesting resilience in lower and mid-tier segments. Private sales were estimated to have risen by 14 per cent. The US retained the top spot for mar- ket share (43 per cent), while China’s sales fell 31 per cent to $8.4 billion, pushing it behind the UK. The market, in short, is not collapsing but rebalancing. A number of the art world experts who spoke to Spear’s for


this article suggest a cooler, leaner, more se- lective phase has begun. The major auction houses, however, have


felt the chill. Christie’s, Sotheby’s and Phillips saw sales fall 19 per cent in 2023 and anoth- er 26 per cent in 2024. Christie’s dropped from $8.4 billion in 2022 to $5.7 billion. So- theby’s revenue slid 23 per cent to $6 billion, soſtened only by a $1 billion bailout from Abu Dhabi’s ADQ. Moody’s and S&P still rate its bonds as highly speculative. Phillips saw a 14 per cent drop. Bonhams declined 12 per cent but dismissed it as cyclical.


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urther darkening the outlook is data from Mei Moses, a Sotheby’s-owned specialist in repeat auction sales. It


reports that average returns on artworks have dropped to their lowest since 2000 – virtually zero. Some of the biggest names have taken hits. Rothko’s Untitled (Yellow and Blue) sold for $46.5 million in 2015 but fetched only $32.5 million in 2024 – a 30 per cent drop. Koons’ Balloon Monkey series plummeted 60 per cent over a decade. María Berrío’s La Cena, bought for $1.5 million in 2022, resold for $441,000 in 2024 – a 71 per cent dive. For collectors who saw art as a hedge or haven, this is sobering news; many are choosing to hold, to avoid crystallising their losses.


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