APPLIED ECONOMICS AND POLICY


Double cropping as an adaptation to climate change in


the United States American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 107, 2, March 2025


ARIEL ORTIZ-BOBEA ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR Charles H. Dyson School


of Applied Economics and Management Cornell SC Johnson College of Business Cornell University


LINK TO PAPER LINK TO ORTIZ-BOBEA VIDEO


Co-authors • Ariel Ortiz-Bobea


Associate Professor, Charles H. Dyson School of Applied


Economics and Management, Cornell SC Johnson College of Business, Cornell University


• Matthew Gammans, Isometric, New York, NY • Pierre Mérel, University of California at Davis


Summary Climate change is projected to disrupt the production of major crop commod-


ities globally and reduce the yields of key crops in the United States (US). Si- multaneously, world demand for food is expected to increase due to growing population and rising incomes. A warming climate expands the frost-free sea- son, plausibly allowing for increased cropping intensity in temperate regions. Tis paper assesses the potential of multiple cropping to offset the projected negative effects of climate change on agricultural yields in the United States. Te authors use cross-sectional variation in observed land cover, soil charac- teristics, and climate to estimate farmers’ propensity to double-crop winter wheat with soybeans.


Tese estimates imply that under current economic conditions, a 3°C warm- ing would result in an increase of 2.1 percentage points in the share of cur- rent soybean area double cropped, primarily driven by expansions in cooler regions. A fixed-effects panel model of county yields further indicates that yields of double-cropped soybeans are about 12% lower than those of sin- gle-cropped soybeans. Accounting for changes in cropping intensity and attendant effects on soybean yields, they project that at current prices, a 3°C warming would induce a shift in cropping intensity that increases revenue from soy systems by 1.3% overall, offsetting only a small fraction of the reve- nue impacts of predicted yield declines.


CONTENTS TO MAIN


| RESEARCH WITH IMPACT: CORNELL SC JOHNSON COLLEGE OF BUSINESS • 2025 EDITION


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