MARKET INSIGHT | CANADA
by further growth of 2.6% in 2026. Expansion will be underpinned by both public and private investment in residential and non-residential building, alongside increased spending on transport infrastructure. Statistics Canada reports that total investment in building construction rose by 4.5% year on year (YoY) during the first nine months of 2025. Within this, residential construction increased by 6.8% YoY and
G
lobalData forecasts that Canada’s construction industry will grow by 2.2% in real terms in 2025, followed
institutional construction by 6% YoY in January– September 2025. Despite this momentum, the sector is
expected to face short-term headwinds stemming from ongoing political tensions between Canada and the US following President Donald Trump’s punitive tariff measures. President Trump introduced an additional 10% tariff on Canadian goods, bringing the total tariff on many Canadian imports to 35%. Particularly impactful were duties on key construction inputs – steel, aluminium and lumber –
disproportionately affecting the construction sector. Statistics Canada data shows that the total value of building permits issued declined by 2.1% YoY in the first nine months of 2025. Residential building permits recorded subdued performance, while non-residential building permits decreased by 5.3% YoY over the same period. The industrial construction sector is forecast
to contract by 4.1% in real terms in 2025 and by a further 2.9% in 2026. This downturn reflects weaker investment linked to heightened
Canada, construction output value (real, $ million, 2022 prices and exchange rate), 2020–29 Note: GlobalData changed base year from 2024 report onwards, now prices and exchange rates kept constant at the 2022 levels
400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Value % change
Canada, industrial construction output by project type (real % change), 2020–29 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Chemical and pharmaceutical plants Manufacturing plants
Metal and material production and processing plants Waste processing plants Total
-2.7 -3.1 4.1 25.3 1.1 -4.4 -3.5 -2.1 2.3 -2.6 -4.2 8.2 34.2 6.4 -4.8 -1.0 2.4 -2.7 -2.4 1.4 24.1 -0.8 -5.2 -1.7 3.6 -2.7 -1.8 -4.7 9.7
0.7 -1.1 -7.7 0.7 -2.7 -3.1 3.2 25.4 3.0 -4.1 -2.9 2.2
3.0 3.8 1.1 2.6
2.4 2.9 3.2 1.7 2.6
2026 2027 2028 2029
8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%
ochmagazine.com | Spring 2026 19
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