News & numbers African vaccines
Africa has always imported the vast majority of its vaccines. Until recently, it looked like it had neither the will nor the opportunity to change that. Now, though, diffi culties sourcing Covid-19 vaccines, threats from continent-specifi c outbreaks, rising demand from a fast-growing population and technological developments pushing down manufacturing costs might just ignite the continent’s industry.
Percentage of Africa’s vaccines that are currently imported from outside the continent
99%
13 22
Number of vaccine products that are fi lled and fi nished in Africa
scale, which means lower effi ciencies and higher costs
6
Number of vaccine products that are imported for distribution across Africa by African companies†
$1.4bn
High-end estimate of the African vaccine market
Value of the current African vaccine market
$5.4bn
by 2030 – depending on the requirement for Covid-19 boosters and the introduction of vaccines for malaria and HIV
2030 1.2 billion doses 2.4
Number of vaccine products that are
15 packaged on the continent, mainly in Egypt, South Africa and Senegal Estimated potential public market value by 2030, by scenario (in $ billion)
Conservative cases: High likelihood products only
+7%per annum Assumptions
Legacy and expanding routine products get wider coverage and new country introductions
Malaria vaccine (RTS,S) is introduced: $2/dose
No novel products are introduced or licensed
Ebola stockpile is 500,000 doses, replaced biennially
Covid-19 does not require continued immunization beyond 20301
Midcases: Expanded portfolio with slightly higher pricing assumptions
+12%per annum Assumptions
4.3
Legacy and expanding routine products get wider coverage and new country introductions
Gavi-transitioning2 pay higher prices
countries
Malaria vaccine (RTS,S) is introduced: $5/dose
Some novel outbreak products (for example, for Lassa fever or chikungunya) are licensed with low demand (100,000 doses per annum)
HIV vaccine is licensed and introduced in high-prevalence (>10%) countries
Covid-19 vaccination boosters required every ten years
2030 1.3 billion doses 2030 1.5 billion doses
Notes: These forecasts are not exhaustive; they do not necessarily incorporate the full range of products in development (such as new dosage forms or full range of candidates). 1
middle-income countries. Source: Interviews with industry experts; Linkbridge; McKinsey & Company analysis.
These conservative assumptions were refined with a group of vaccine experts; the actual market may be substantially larger if Covid-19 becomes endemic (and requires repeated vaccinations, for example). 2
The public market of Covid-19 vaccines may vary significantly from country to country, as there is no global consensus on long-term vaccination strategies. Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, is a public–private global health partnership focused on providing immunisation access to low and
High end: Novel portfolio with slightly higher pricing assumptions
5.4
+14%per annum Assumptions
Existing products (legacy and routine) at higher prices as per midcase scenario
Malaria vaccine (RTS,S) is introduced: $10/dose
Some novel outbreak products (for example, for Lassa fever or chikungunya) are licensed with medium demand (250,000 doses per annum)
HIV vaccine is licensed and introduced in medium- and high-prevalence countries (>3% prevalence)
Covid-19 vaccination boosters are required every two years, for vulnerable populations
Number of vaccine substances that are manufactured in Africa currently – typically at small
†Does not include branches of foreign companies in Africa that solely import for distribution.
Source: McKinsey & Company
World Pharmaceutical Frontiers /
www.worldpharmaceuticals.net
7
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