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51%. In terms of ‘kits sold’ into refurb, says JKMR, Howdens’ total dropped from 453,000 to 400,000, while those from other multiples into the refurb market fell by 19,000 kits to 172,000.
2023 saw specialist/studio installations fall by 11,000 to 140,000 but increase their volume market share to 12.35% due to the total market installation decline. JKMR says this reflected higher end clients being less affected by wider economic factors, and larger upscale operations like Kütchener trading well. But it adds that the specialist market is still constrained in volume sales by fitter availability. Wren’s volume market share fell back from
10.7% in 2022 to 9.7% (110,000 installations) with one factor being its exposure to ‘just about managing’ consumers, says JKMR. But, offsetting this, was the company’s increased direct sales to new build.
Direct contract volume share fell to 10% in 2023 in the face of the downturn in new build completions, plus growing competition in new build and RSL projects from Wren, Howden and other multiples, which took 11.9% volume share.
JKMR stresses that its assessment of the
market through 2024 is initial and could be subject to change, but indicators are that suppliers continued to find business a struggle. In fact, the preliminary estimate is that total installations dropped 7% (80,000) to 1.053 million, the lowest figure since 2012. However, indicating that those consumers who have gone ahead with an installation are still willing to spend, market value is projected to have risen slightly (0.85%) to £5.27bn.
“Given the considerable rise in mortgage costs, it is inevitable that 2024 will have seen more households feel that, as their fixed rate mortgages move on to higher rates, they have no option but to delay major home refurbishment projects. And research showed that even with inflation rates decreasing and the likelihood of interest rates coming down further, consumer confidence remains negative,” states JKMR. Underpinning the market, however, and stopping more contraction is that consumers most likely to buy a new kitchen, the top three income quantiles, are not currently affected by employment instability or negative equity, with house prices holding up. Q1-3 2024 trading statements from major multiples show variation in performance, with the consumer-facing sides of B&Q, Wickes, and Magnet struggling, affecting overall kitchen related income, although Wickes reports growth for its trade-facing sides. Howden’s current figures indicate its 2024 UK depot income was broadly stable. And it’s likely, says JKMR, that Wren and the other consumer-facing multiples targeting younger/lower and mid-income households have seen demand decline.
Kitchen studios, it says, are seeing clients still willing to spend. The consensus is that conversion rates are higher than pre-Covid, and there are as yet no indications the higher end is suffering. Inevitably, sales to new build are expected to have taken a hit from the 2.9% decrease in construction output reported by the Construction Products Association. New build RSL completions are predicted to have
been level with 2023, while the private landlord refurb sector continues to decline due to higher mortgage costs. Unless there are changes in tax legislation it is likely that individual landlords (ie as opposed to corporate or large-scale) will continue to exit the sector.
JKMR believes installations will improve marginally this year, with households having had time to adjust to higher mortgage rates and new build levels improving – with the CPA forecasting an increase in construction output of 2.5%. The combination of ongoing price rises and consumers seeking to upgrade market value is currently projected to rise 3.3% to over £5.45bn.
“The rise is relatively modest due to trade and mass volume retailers looking to improve volumes through highly cost competitive pricing,” says JKMR.
Looking to the next couple of years, JKMR says growth in the kitchen market will remain moderate, with RSL activity muted, built to rent completions at a lower level than pre- Covid and more small-scale landlords exiting the rental sector. At the same time, despite the government drive to increase it, new build housing completions are expected to still be under 300,000 in 2026.
The percentage of owner-occupier households fitting a new kitchen is expected to remain at 5.5% a year.
“[But,] if owner-occupiers are to carry on driving through market growth, the industry needs consumers to replace their kitchen around every 15 years, despite the fact product quality now enables it to be ‘fit for purpose’ for far longer,” concludes JKMR. ■
HOW GREEN IS MY KITCHEN
The JKMR UK Fitted Kitchen Report also looks at design trends in the market. Through the 20s the fashion is predicted to be for darker timbers, sustainable
materials, textures, alternative metals and earthy or neutral colours. “Eco/sustainable product specification may become a more fundamental expectation in kitchen buying, whether driven by legislation or client desire,” says JKMR. “It may also become incumbent upon kitchen suppliers to provide a means for clients to upcycle their pre-existing kitchen or, at least, provide guidance or assistance on how to dispose of it more sustainably.” Sustainable materials generally, including bamboo, are entering the kitchen market in a more mainstream fashion. “It is likely that over the next few years new biomaterials such as mycelium will start to be introduced for frontals as part of a new eco-aware manufacturing base,” says JKMR. “As cradle-to-grave carbon impact becomes an increasing consumer concern it’s also likely the market will develop new materials created from recycled/waste products.” The concept of biophilia, aligning design with the environment through use of
natural materials and a natural aesthetic, is also expected to shape consumer choice increasingly. “At its most extreme are buildings which ‘grow’ out of their surroundings, while, at a
Above: Bringing nature into the kitchen is on trend PHOTO
THELITTLEBOTANICAL.COM
more mundane level there is a wish for ‘inside’ and ‘outside’ space to be connected,” says JKMR. “A further recent development is the ‘atrium kitchen’, combining a kitchen with a ‘winter garden’.” ■
www.ttjonline.com | March/April 2025 | TTJ
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