28 | Focus on OSB: North America
NA OSB Production v Housing Starts Canada Housing Starts U.S. Housing Starts N.A. OSB prod. (MSM 3/8” Basis) 2500 3000
2500 2000 2000 1500 1500 1000 1000 500 500
0
0
Source: historical: U.S. Census Bureau, Statistics Canada, projected: National Association of Home Builders
term. Housing starts fell 4.6% in October to a 1,246,000 annual pace, the lowest since May 2020. Although a drop-off in multifamily groundbreakings was the primary driver, single-family starts also remain in a weak position after pulling back for much of 2025. Yet, both single-family and multifamily permits are no longer declining, which implies residential investment will begin to stabilize later this year…” Over the medium term, housing
construction and associated demand for OSB should benefit now that leading politicians in both Canada and the US recognize the affordable housing shortage as a political liability. In September 2025, Canadian Prime
Minister Carney announced the “Build Canada Homes” initiative intended to increase the supply of affordable housing to low-income and middle-class Canadians. Among many purposes, the initiative will support private builders by facilitating government approvals of new housing, making unused federal properties available to private developers, and establishing a fund to finance homebuilding developments. Another key goal is to use ecologically- friendly building materials - such as mass timber – from Canadian sources. “Canada’s new government is relentlessly focused on bringing down housing costs,”
Prime Minister Mark Carney recently stated. “Central to that mission is rapidly scaling up the supply of homes. Build Canada Homes will transform the way government works with the private sector to build. We will create an entirely new housing industry using Canadian technology, Canadian workers, and Canadian resources – and give builders the tools they need to build more, build sustainably, and build at scale.” President Trump also has spoken about the problem of unaffordable housing, but he is concerned that lower home prices will financially harm existing homeowners. Trump argued.
“The best thing that can happen for both groups of people is lower interest rates, and those interest rates are coming down,” he said.
Given the President’s view that lower
mortgage interest rates will not stimulate a rise in monthly homeowner costs in spite of the housing shortage, he expects that the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank will lower interest rates. The President also has directed the government-owned mortgage purchasers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to bring down mortgage rates by purchasing US$200bn of mortgages. Housing demand remains unsatisfied in
spite of currently low housing starts. Poor financial results of OSB makers reflect weak
WBPI | Summer 2026 |
www.wbpionline.com
demand, and recent better product prices follow less efficient producers temporarily or permanently ceasing production. Housing starts and OSB demand should rebound in the next few years while efficient new OSB makers add supply. Otherwise, additional mill closures and job losses are likely.
ABOUT THE AUTHORS Richard W (Rich) Baldwin, MBA is chief
(Texas, US), and regularly consults for Asian, European, and North American engineered wood products makers. In recent years, he served as a strategic consultant for several
Plywood & Veneer (Mississippi, US) and
CalPlant I (California, US). Rich was visiting professor at Southwest Forestry University (Kunming, China) and previously worked for
Richard F (Dick) Baldwin, PhD, CF is managing partner of Oak Creek Investments (Texas, US), and an investor in wood and non-wood businesses. In recent years, he served as general manager of Chester Wood Products (South Carolina, US), Moncure Plywood (North Carolina, US), Omak Wood Products (Washington, US), and Winston Plywood & Veneer (Mississippi, US). Dick is instructor in the Forestry Department of Oregon State University (Oregon, US) and author of the 2016 industry primer Plywood and Veneer- Based Products.
N.A. OSB prod. (MSM 3/8" Basis)
Housing starts
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
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